Match Info

Copa del Rey - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio de Mestalla (Valencia)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Valencia		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3.35
	2.4	3.27	3.46
	2.28	3.26	3.32	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.32	3.24	3.42	Watch
	2.16	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (3.01)	3.2 ↑ (3.17)	3.39 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valencia
42.3%

Draw
29.7%

Athletic Bilbao
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

29.8%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

30.1%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valencia's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valencia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	16.1%	19.6%

Valencia - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Valencia will win (votes: 35 - 64.8%). Athletic will win (votes: 11 - 20.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valencia: 52.1% – 77.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Valencia (1.97) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

DNB - Valencia (1.55) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Valencia (1.34) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25 - Athletic (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Valencia will win (29 of 36 users predict this - 80.56%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 49 Selected Experts predict this event. Valencia (votes: 38 - 77.6%). Athletic (votes: 6 - 12.2%). Tie (votes: 5 - 10.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 20. Foulquier D. 24. Comert E. 3. Copete J. 21. Vazquez J. 11. Rioja L. 23. Ugrinic F. 18. Pepelu (C) 7. Danjuma A. 15. Beltran L. 6. Sadiq U.	27. Padilla A. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 47. Monreal I. 14. Laporte A. 15. Lekue I. (C) 18. Jauregizar M. 6. Vesga M. 22. Serrano N. 44. Sanchez S. 23. Navarro R. 25. Izeta
Substitutes
28. Abril V. (G) 10. Almeida A. 9. Duro H. 14. Gaya J. 8. Guerra J. 16. Lopez D. 4. Nunez U. 17. Ramazani L. 2. Rodriguez G. 26. Rubo 5. Tarrega C.	17. Berchiche Y. 19. Boiro A. 34. De Luis J. 49. Garcia E. 20. Gomez U. 11. Guruzeta G. 30. Rego A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 1. Simon U. (G) 9. Williams I. 10. Williams N.
Coaches
Corberan C.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Sadiq U. (Own goal),
35', 1 - 1, Sadiq U. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Sadiq U. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
59', Copete J. ↓, Tarrega C. ↑,
59', Vesga M. ↓, Berchiche Y. ↑,
59', Izeta ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
59', Laporte A. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
70', Navarro R. ↓, Williams I. ↑,
70', Sanchez S. ↓, Williams N. ↑,
75', Jauregizar M. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Beltran L. ↓, Ramazani L. ↑,
77', Danjuma A. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
88', Valverde E. 🟨,
88', Corberan C. 🟨,
89', Ugrinic F. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Williams I. ⚽, Williams N. (A),
90+8', Lopez D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 2.

Valencia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Athletic is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Valencia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Valencia: Agirrezabala J. (Muscle Injury) Diakhaby M. (Muscle Injury) Santamaria B. (Suspended)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berenguer A. (Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Paredes A. (Red Card) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sancet O. (Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Vivian D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Valencia: Copete J. (Muscle Injury) Correia T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Valencia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:20. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Valencia won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.3:1.2).

Outrights of Spanish Copa del Rey for now

Ath Bilbao: 3.23% Valencia: 1.66%

Last Results with these Odds

Valencia - the odds 3.01 are the expected chance of winning is 31.42%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Betis - Valencia	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Valencia - Espanyol	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Getafe - Valencia	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.26	Burgos - Valencia	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.01.26	Valencia - Elche	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWWT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.01.26	Sevilla - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Atalanta - Athletic Bilbao	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
17.01.26	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
20.09.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	2:0
18.05.25	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	0:1
28.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Valencia	1:0
20.01.24	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
29.10.23	Athletic Bilbao - Valencia	2:2
11.02.23	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	1:2
Spanish Copa del Rey
26.01.23	Valencia - Athletic Bilbao	1:3

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