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Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 27
  • Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday
  • Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)
  • Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Athletic Bilbao Barcelona
    Athletic Bilbao Barcelona
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.64 ↓
    (4.83)    		 4.31 ↓
    (4.34)    		 1.67 ↑
    (1.61)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

    • The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    20.6%    		Draw
    22.2%    		Barcelona
    57.3%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    19.6% 21.8% 58.7%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    18.3% 23.3% 62.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)
  • Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barcelona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    6.1% 4.9% 89%

    Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Athletic (4.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.75 - Barcelona (3.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DC - Barcelona (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (73 of 82 users predict this - 89.02%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 82.25% – 95.79%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Barcelona will win (24 of 26 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 3 - 10.3%). Barcelona (votes: 26 - 89.7%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
      3. SpainVivian D.
    14. SpainLaporte A.
    19. SpainBoiro A.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
    30. SpainRego A.
    20. SpainGomez U.
    44. SpainSanchez S.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
    		13. SpainGarcia J. (G)
    24. SpainGarcia E. (C)
      5. SpainCubarsi P.
    18. SpainMartin G.
      2. PortugalCancelo J.
    20. SpainOlmo D.
    22. SpainBernal M.
    17. SpainCasado M.
    10. SpainLamine Yamal
      7. SpainTorres F.
    14. EnglandRashford M.
    Substitutes
    12. SpainAreso J.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    49. SpainGarcia E.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    15. SpainLekue I.
    47. SpainMonreal I.
    23. SpainNavarro R.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
      8. SpainSancet O.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
      6. SpainVesga M.
    		  4. UruguayAraujo R.
    19. SwedenBardghji R.
    36. SpainCortes A.
    42. SpainEspart X.
    16. SpainFermín
    31. USAKochen D. (G)
      9. PolandLewandowski R.
    43. SpainMarques T.
      8. SpainPedri
    11. BrazilRaphinha
    25. PolandSzczesny W. (G)
    Coaches
         SpainValverde E.
    		     GermanyFlick H.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 10', Gomez U. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 46', Bernal M. ↓, Pedri ↑,
    • 46', Sanchez S. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
    • 50', Rego A. 🟨,
    • 57', Cubarsi P. 🟨,
    • 62', Torres F. ↓, Lewandowski R. ↑,
    • 62', Rashford M. ↓, Raphinha ↑,
    • 62', Olmo D. ↓, Fermín ↑,
    • 68', 0 - 1, Lamine Yamal ⚽, Pedri (A),
    • 69', Rego A. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
    • 69', Williams I. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
    • 74', Jauregizar M. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
    • 78', Casado M. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
    • 90+3', Vivian D. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 0.
  • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
  • Barcelona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Barcelona is a strong favorite.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury) Williams N. (Groin Injury)
  • There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Christensen A. (Knee Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Kounde J. (Hamstring Injury) de Jong F. (Hamstring Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 17:43. (average 0.9:2.2).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 1.1:1.6).

    • Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Barcelona: 70.96% Ath Bilbao: 0.47%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Barcelona770031:72421
    10Ath Bilbao62227:618

    Last Results with these Odds

    Barcelona - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.69%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    04.03.26 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    28.02.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao 1:1 ✺
    20.02.26 Athletic Bilbao - Elche 2:1 ✺
    15.02.26 Real Oviedo - Athletic Bilbao 1:2 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    11.02.26 Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad 0:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4
    LTWWL
    - FC Barcelona
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    03.03.26 Barcelona - Atlético Madrid 3:0 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    28.02.26 Barcelona - Villarreal 4:1 ✺
    22.02.26 Barcelona - Levante 3:0 ✺
    16.02.26 Girona - Barcelona 2:1 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    12.02.26 Atlético Madrid - Barcelona 4:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4
    WWWLL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish Supercopa
    07.01.26 Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao 5:0
    Spanish LaLiga
    22.11.25 Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao 4:0
    25.05.25 Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona 0:3
    Spanish Supercopa
    08.01.25 Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona 0:2
    Spanish LaLiga
    24.08.24 Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao 2:1
    03.03.24 Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona 0:0
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    24.01.24 Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona 4:2 ET
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    - FC Barcelona
    UEFA Champions League
    13.10.26 Galatasaray - Barcelona ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Barcelona - Getafe ✺

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