Match Info

K3 League - Round 8

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday


	Daejeon Korail		Changwon City

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.98	2.78
	2.6	3.01	2.88
	2.5	3.05	2.78	Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.75
	2.48	2.91	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.49)	2.95 ↓ (3.37)	2.78 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daejeon Korail
36.5%

Draw
30.8%

Changwon City
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

27.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

26.9%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daejeon Korail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Changwon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

The ML Model estimate for Daejeon Korail aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Daejeon Korail - Changwon City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Daejeon Korail won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Daejeon Korail won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Daejeon Korail won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Daejeon Korail	23	12	5	6	33:18	15	41
8	Changwon	23	7	8	8	26:28	-2	29

Last Results with these Odds

Changwon City - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.69%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daejeon Korail
South Korean K3 League
19.04.26	Yangpyeong - Daejeon Korail	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Siheung	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Pocheon	0:1 ✺
28.03.26	Gyeongju KH&NP - Daejeon Korail	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Busan Kyotong - Daejeon Korail	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLTT
- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
19.04.26	Changwon City - Gyeongju KH&NP	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Changwon City - Busan Kyotong	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Jeonbuk 2 - Changwon City	2:3 ✺
29.03.26	Chuncheon - Changwon City	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Changwon City - Yeoju	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
31.08.25	Changwon City - Daejeon Korail	0:0
02.05.25	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	1:1
05.07.24	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	3:3
17.03.24	Changwon City - Daejeon Korail	0:1
11.08.23	Changwon City - Daejeon Korail	2:4
15.04.23	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	2:1
19.08.22	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	1:0

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