Match Info

A Lyga - Round 23

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Alytus Stadium (Dainava)

Referee: Lukjancukas M. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LRT Plius, LRT TV


	Dainava Alytus		Sūduva Marijampolė

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.47
	4.15	3.45	1.72	Watch
	4.51	3.5	1.84
	3.85	3.38	1.93	Watch
	5.8	4	1.44
	3.93	3.88	1.71	Watch
	4.75	3.8	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↓ (4.75)	3.7 ↓ (3.8)	1.67 ↑ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dainava Alytus
19.9%

Draw
24.9%

Sūduva Marijampolė
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

23.7%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.6%

23.2%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dainava Alytus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Sūduva Marijampolė has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dainava Alytus than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sūduva Marijampolė than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Dainava Alytus - Sūduva Marijampolė Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Mickevicius A. (G) 8. Achol M. 23. Koshkosh I. 11. Lubas J. 14. Obi Chinonso J. 4. Oostenbrink K. 24. Paliusis N. 26. Reginaldo 75. Stockunas E. 29. Zabita G. (C) 17. Zevzikovas D.	31. Plukas I. (G) 5. Baltrunas Z. 29. Beneta M. 70. Haidara A. 8. Lawson S. 28. Petkevicius N. 94. Sanokho S. M. 88. Stankevicius D. 14. Tangiri F. 4. Uzochukwu H. 15. Zivanovic A. (C)
Substitutes
6. Banevicius R. 5. Chikovani N. 2. Daniel Alemao 13. Faye C. 28. Lauva K. (G) 22. Nakashidze N. 37. Okoniewski K. 27. Siaudvytis L. 33. Zahladko V.	77. Bickauskas P. 97. Gumbelevicius T. 42. Kupstas K. 9. Lucky T. 17. Luksys N. 11. Momoh I. 66. Pacesa R. (G) 87. Pudzemys D. 13. Pyrogov M. 46. Skamarakas I. 12. Zenkevicius G. (G) 21. Zingertas L.
Coaches
Orazov M.	Vencevicius D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Baltrunas Z. 🟨,
23', Lawson S. 🟥,
26', Oostenbrink K. ↓, Daniel Alemao ↑,
32', Zabita G. 🟨,
45+3', Petkevicius N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Petkevicius N. ↓, Lucky T. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Achol M. ⚽,
62', Reginaldo ↓, Chikovani N. ↑,
62', Obi Chinonso J. ↓, Okoniewski K. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Stankevicius D. ⚽,
80', Koshkosh I. ↓, Banevicius R. ↑,
81', Baltrunas Z. ↓, Momoh I. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Lubas J. ⚽,
83', Tangiri F. ↓, Pyrogov M. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Stankevicius D. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dainava won 1.

Dainava is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sūduva has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Sūduva is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dainava won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 8:46. (average 0.4:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Dainava won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:29. (average 0.5:2.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dainava Alytus
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
28.07.25	FA Šiauliai - Dainava Alytus	3:1 ✺
21.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Dainava Alytus	3:0 ✺
14.07.25	Dainava Alytus - Panevėžys	0:3 ✺
06.07.25	Dainava Alytus - Džiugas Telšiai	0:2 ✺
29.06.25	Riteriai - Dainava Alytus	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLLW
- Sūduva Marijampolė
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
27.07.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Džiugas Telšiai	2:3 ✺
20.07.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Riteriai	0:0 ✺
07.07.25	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
30.06.25	Hegelmann Litauen - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2 ✺
25.06.25	FA Šiauliai - Sūduva Marijampolė	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
16.05.25	Dainava Alytus - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:3
04.04.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Dainava Alytus	1:0
20.09.24	Dainava Alytus - Sūduva Marijampolė	Suduva awarded
07.07.24	Sūduva Marijampolė - Dainava Alytus	0:0
17.05.24	Dainava Alytus - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:1
31.03.24	Sūduva Marijampolė - Dainava Alytus	0:1
20.10.23	Dainava Alytus - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2

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