Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 8

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	Defensores de Vilelas		Bartolomé Mitre

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.8	2.15
	3.15	2.88	2.25
	3.19	3.07	2.27
	3.24	3.07	2.3	Watch
	3.1	2.75	2.3
	3.24	2.94	2.21
	2.36	2.82	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.36)	2.9 ↑ (2.82)	2.37 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensores de Vilelas
29.8%

Draw
31.5%

Bartolomé Mitre
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

32.2%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

33.6%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensores de Vilelas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Defensores de Vilelas's form might have worsened.

Bartolomé Mitre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bartolomé Mitre's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensores de Vilelas than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensores de Vilelas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bartolomé Mitre than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bartolomé Mitre, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Defensores de Vilelas - Bartolomé Mitre Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Def de Vilelas will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Bartolomé Mitre will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bartolomé Mitre (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ledesma L. (G)
8. Acevedo M.
2. Berlo B.
9. Carballo G. (C)
6. Farias F.
4. Fernandez F.
3. Molina N.
11. Montenegro R.
10. Niz L.
5. Remotti L.
7. Rios G.
Substitutes
19. Acevedo J.
18. Canario J.
12. Ferreyra M. (G)
17. Larrasabal L.
15. Molina J.
13. Navarro L.
16. Ojeda G.
20. Robledo S.
14. Turraca J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Niz L. ⚽,
36', 🟨,
45+2', 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Penaloza J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
64', 🟨,
65', 1 - 2, Penaloza J. ⚽,
67', 🟨,
84', 1 - 3, Klusener A. ⚽,
87', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', 🟥,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: ) and 5 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: ))

Def de Vilelas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bartolomé Mitre is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Def de Vilelas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensores de Vilelas
Argentinian Torneo Federal
03.05.26	Sarmiento de La Banda - Defensores de Vilelas	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Defensores de Vilelas - Juventud Antoniana	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Sol de América de Formosa - Defensores de Vilelas	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Defensores de Vilelas - Sarmiento de Resistencia	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Boca Unidos - Defensores de Vilelas	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WLLTW
- CA Bartolomé Mitre
Argentinian Torneo Federal
26.04.26	Bartolomé Mitre - Sarmiento de La Banda	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Juventud Antoniana - Bartolomé Mitre	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Bartolomé Mitre - Sol de América de Formosa	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Sarmiento de Resistencia - Bartolomé Mitre	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Bartolomé Mitre - Boca Unidos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWTTW

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