Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 6

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)


	Deportes Concepción		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	2.82	Watch
	2.52	3.05	2.88	Watch
	2.57	3.21	2.96
	2.55	3.17	2.81	Watch
	2.4	3	2.7
	2.45	3.4	2.96	Watch
	2.33	3.3	3.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.33)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)	2.88 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
38.2%

Draw
29.2%

Ñublense
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

28.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Ñublense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Deportes Concepción - Ñublense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Ñublense will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Deportes Concepción (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cesar (G) 4. Caceres A. 21. Rodriguez N. 3. Carrasco D. 23. Rojas J. 27. Sepulveda N. 17. Mesias Gonzalez I. S. 20. Henriquez J. 22. Davila Carvajal M. 32. Larrivey J. (C) 10. Valencia Rossel L.	1. Perez N. (G) 5. Campos Mosqueira F. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 8. Graciani G. 21. Reyes L. (C) 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 7. Ovelar F. 29. Avalos G. 20. Jeraldino I.
Substitutes
25. Araya N. (G) 24. Cavalleri M. 9. Escobar C. 30. Espinoza E. 7. Gillard A. 19. Jara A. 18. Rodriguez Y. 16. Sandoval M. 13. Suarez C.	23. Gonzalez J. 11. Molina Canto L. 25. Munoz H. (G) 10. Plaza M. 9. Rami F. 13. Saavedra D. 3. Salomon C. 16. Sanhueza D. 22. Valdes A.
Coaches
Almendra P.	Ribera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Sepulveda N. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Graciani G. ⚽,
34', Campusano J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mesias Gonzalez I. S. ↓, Espinoza E. ↑,
46', Davila Carvajal M. ↓, Jara A. ↑,
46', Sepulveda N. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
47', Rivera M. 🟨,
61', Caceres A. 🟨,
69', Avalos G. ↓, Plaza M. ↑,
69', Graciani G. ↓, Sanhueza D. ↑,
75', Jeraldino I. ↓, Rami F. ↑,
77', Reyes L. 🟨,
83', Ovelar F. ↓, Valdes A. ↑,
83', Valencia Rossel L. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Sanhueza D. ⚽,
89', Sanhueza D. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga de Ascenso and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Qualification: )).

Deportes Concepción is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ñublense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Deportes Concepción has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 2.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Concepción won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32
9	D. Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25:26	-1	31

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
28.02.26	Coquimbo Unido - Deportes Concepción	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Deportes Concepción - Cobresal	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Universidad Católica - Deportes Concepción	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	OHiggins - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTLLL
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.26	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Unión La Calera - Ñublense	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Ñublense - Audax Italiano	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Ñublense - Deportes Limache	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Palestino - Ñublense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.03.16	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	1:3
04.11.15	Deportes Concepción - Ñublense	5:2
Chilean Cup
29.07.15	Deportes Concepción - Ñublense	1:0
08.07.15	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	0:0

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