Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 11

Date: 19 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio La Portada (La Serena)

Referee: Gilabert F. (Chi)


	Deportes La Serena		Deportes Iquique

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.2	4.2	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.87
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.02	3.28	4.34
	2	3.23	3.89	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.8
	1.98	3.25	4.06	Watch
	2	3.3	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.53)	3.25 ↓ (3.28)	3.75 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes La Serena
45.5%

Draw
29.2%

Deportes Iquique
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

28.6%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

30.9%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes La Serena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes La Serena's performance.

Deportes Iquique has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Iquique might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes La Serena than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes La Serena that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Iquique than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Iquique could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	27.3%	18.2%

Deportes La Serena - Deportes Iquique Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Deportes La Serena will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Deportes Iquique will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes La Serena: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes La Serena (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanhueza Mora E. A. (G) 4. Rojas J. 2. Zanini A. 5. Alarcon L. 26. Dinamarca F. 6. Diaz S. 14. Chamorro F. 18. Gallegos S. 7. Jara Gonzalez G. A. 11. Henriquez A. 10. Vargas J. (C)	22. Requena L. (G) 4. Rojas D. 3. Ferreyra T. 26. Saborit E. 13. Jorquera M. 14. Davila Carvajal M. 5. Fuentes C. 20. Orellana D. 23. Hoyos E. 8. Pino S. 11. Ramos A. (C)
Substitutes
12. Cerda F. (G) 17. Fuentes J. 16. Gutierrez C. 29. Jhonatan Kauan 9. Moreira E. 8. Rivera M. 37. Sepulveda C.	36. Bacca J. 30. Blazquez M. 7. Gomez J. 17. Gonzalez C. 50. Marcotti L. 29. Moya M. 1. Reyes M. (G)
Coaches
Paulucci C.	Diaz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', Diaz S. ↓, Fuentes J. ↑,
28', 0 - 1, Pino S. ⚽, Jorquera M. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Zanini A. ⚽,
45+4', Pino S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Ferreyra T. 🟨,
58', Hoyos E. ↓, Moya M. ↑,
59', Jara Gonzalez G. A. ↓, Jhonatan Kauan ↑,
71', Orellana D. ↓, Bacca J. ↑,
71', Ramos A. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
72', Chamorro F. ↓, Rivera M. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Henriquez A. ⚽, Vargas J. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga de Ascenso).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes La Serena won 1.

Deportes La Serena has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportes Iquique has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportes La Serena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportes La Serena won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes La Serena won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes La Serena
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Deportes La Serena - Cobresal	1:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
04.05.25	Audax Italiano - Deportes La Serena	2:1 ✺
25.04.25	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Universidad de Chile - Deportes La Serena	3:1 ✺
13.04.25	Deportes La Serena - Everton de Viña	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLLLW
- Deportes Iquique
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.25	Cienciano - Deportes Iquique	4:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Iquique	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.25	Deportes Iquique - Atlético Mineiro	3:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
04.05.25	Deportes Iquique - Huachipato	3:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
30.04.25	Deportes Iquique - Deportes Copiapó	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
23.09.23	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Iquique	0:0
16.05.23	Deportes Iquique - Deportes La Serena	3:2
Chilean Primera Division
04.12.20	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Iquique	1:0
20.10.20	Deportes Iquique - Deportes La Serena	2:0
21.09.12	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Iquique	2:3
07.04.12	Deportes Iquique - Deportes La Serena	3:1

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