Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 15

Date: 12 June 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida (Santiago de Chile)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TNT Sports Premium


	Audax Italiano		Deportes La Serena

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.50	3.90	Watch
	1.93	3.50	3.75
	1.84	3.65	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.60	3.45
	1.96	3.56	3.58	Watch
	1.85	3.30	3.60
	1.90	3.59	4.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.95)	3.53 ↓ (3.56)	3.75 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Audax Italiano
48.9%

Draw
26.3%

Deportes La Serena
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

25.9%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

25.3%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Audax Italiano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Deportes La Serena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Audax Italiano than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes La Serena than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Audax Italiano - Deportes La Serena Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Audax Italiano will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Deportes La Serena will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Audax Italiano: 54% – 99.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ahumada T. (G) 13. Ferrario E. 8. Collao M. (C) 4. Pina D. 35. Rebolledo R. 28. Mateos F. 32. Soto B. 27. Fuentes M. 23. Matus E. 21. Chiaverano G. 11. Troyansky F.	31. Tapia J. (G) 21. Gutierrez B. 33. Delgado R. 2. Zanini A. 29. Pinto M. 8. Escalante G. 17. Salazar Y. 4. Mac Allister F. 23. Marin M. 14. Chamorro F. 10. Vargas J. (C)
Substitutes
9. Coelho D. 33. Fuenzalida I. 25. Garrido P. (G) 7. Guajardo P. 20. Jimenez M. 17. Loyola F. 14. Monreal D. 6. Sandoval M. 2. Zenteno V.	24. Diaz F. 6. Diaz S. 26. Dinamarca F. 16. Gutierrez J. 9. Henriquez A. 12. Hernandez M. (G) 28. Orellana J. 19. Sandoval B. 20. Velasquez M.
Coaches
Lema G.	Gutierrez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Chamorro F. 🟨,
44', Zanini A. ↓, Gutierrez J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Soto B. ↓, Fuenzalida I. ↑,
53', Gutierrez B. 🟨,
55', Collao M. ↓, Zenteno V. ↑,
62', Matus E. ↓, Guajardo P. ↑,
62', Troyansky F. ↓, Coelho D. ↑,
66', Chamorro F. ↓, Henriquez A. ↑,
66', Pinto M. ↓, Diaz S. ↑,
74', 0 - 1, Escalante G. ⚽, Vargas J. (A),
79', Fuentes M. ↓, Loyola F. ↑,
79', Mateos F. ↓, Sandoval M. ↑,
80', Ferrario E. 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Coelho D. ⚽, Chiaverano G. (A),
87', Marin M. ↓, Diaz F. ↑,
89', Coelho D. 🟨,
90+5', Vargas J. ↓, Velasquez M. ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 13 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Audax Italiano won 4.

Audax Italiano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Deportes La Serena's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Deportes La Serena has had a series of home games.

Audax Italiano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Audax Italiano won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:15. (average 2.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Audax Italiano won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:6. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	La Serena	23	7	9	7	34:38	-4	30
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	26:31	-5	28

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes La Serena - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 26.54%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Audax Italiano
Chilean Copa de la Liga
07.06.26	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	2:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
31.05.26	Palestino - Audax Italiano	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Audax Italiano	3:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
23.05.26	Audax Italiano - Cobresal	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.05.26	Audax Italiano - Barracas Central	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TTLWW
- Deportes La Serena
Chilean Copa de la Liga
07.06.26	Deportes La Serena - Unión La Calera	0:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
30.05.26	Deportes La Serena - Colo-Colo	2:4 ✺
24.05.26	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Limache	4:1 ✺
15.05.26	Palestino - Deportes La Serena	5:1 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
09.05.26	Deportes La Serena - Audax Italiano	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Copa de la Liga
09.05.26	Deportes La Serena - Audax Italiano	2:4
25.03.26	Audax Italiano - Deportes La Serena	3:1
Chilean Primera Division
25.10.25	Deportes La Serena - Audax Italiano	2:1
04.05.25	Audax Italiano - Deportes La Serena	2:1
06.11.22	Audax Italiano - Deportes La Serena	3:0
28.05.22	Deportes La Serena - Audax Italiano	3:2
26.08.21	Deportes La Serena - Audax Italiano	0:2

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