Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 30

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza (Limache)

Referee: Salvo M. (Chi)


	Deportes Limache		Deportes La Serena

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	2.95	Watch
	2.32	3.05	3.15	Watch
	2.34	3.25	3.39
	2.22	3.36	3.16	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3
	2.24	3.18	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (1.82)	3.21 ↓ (3.56)	3.16 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Limache
41.3%

Draw
29.1%

Deportes La Serena
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

26.2%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.5%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Limache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportes Limache's form might have worsened.

Deportes La Serena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportes La Serena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Limache than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Limache, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes La Serena than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportes La Serena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	53.8%	23.1%

Deportes Limache - Deportes La Serena Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Limache will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Deportes La Serena will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes La Serena (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Deportes La Serena (1.58) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Deportes La Serena (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes La Serena (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Peranic N. (G) 11. Fritz F. (C) 18. Penailillo N. 23. Pacheco G. 28. Guerra Rojas M. 22. Maluenda L. 8. Catalan D. 20. Arce A. 32. Portilla D. 7. Zapata Y. 21. Plaza J.	1. Sanhueza Mora E. A. (G) 2. Zanini A. 3. Ferreyra N. 4. Rojas J. 5. Alarcon L. 22. Fernandez J. 6. Diaz S. 14. Chamorro F. 18. Gallegos S. (C) 32. Mendoza B. 9. Moreira E.
Substitutes
36. Aban G. 1. Borquez M. (G) 19. Castro D. 3. Paz G. 29. Pons F. 13. Romero F. 31. Silva B.	13. Carreno L. 12. Cerda F. (G) 33. Cordero D. 19. Cortes M. 7. Jara Gonzalez G. A. 23. Pinto M. 15. Villarroel M.
Coaches
Rivero V.	Sciacqua M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+3', Mendoza B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Moreira E. 🟨,
62', Fritz F. ↓, Paz G. ↑,
70', Mendoza B. ↓, Jara Gonzalez G. A. ↑,
70', Moreira E. ↓, Cordero D. ↑,
83', Zapata Y. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
83', Plaza J. ↓, Silva B. ↑,
85', 1 - 0, Castro D. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Diaz S. ↓, Villarroel M. ↑,
90+4', Arce A. ↓, Aban G. ↑,
90+4', Catalan D. ↓, Romero F. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Deportes La Serena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Limache has had a series of away games.

Limache might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Limache won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Limache won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Limache
Chilean Primera Division
30.11.25	Unión La Calera - Deportes Limache	0:1 ✺
21.11.25	Deportes Limache - Unión Española	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Universidad de Chile - Deportes Limache	4:3 ✺
03.11.25	Palestino - Deportes Limache	2:1 ✺
27.10.25	Colo-Colo - Deportes Limache	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLLT
- Deportes La Serena
Chilean Primera Division
29.11.25	Deportes La Serena - Palestino	0:3 ✺
22.11.25	Coquimbo Unido - Deportes La Serena	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Deportes La Serena - Universidad Católica	0:1 ✺
31.10.25	Deportes Iquique - Deportes La Serena	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Deportes La Serena - Audax Italiano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
12.10.25	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Limache	1:6
07.09.25	Deportes Limache - Deportes La Serena	2:0
Chilean Primera Division
22.06.25	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Limache	1:1
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
07.09.24	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Limache	2:0
29.04.24	Deportes Limache - Deportes La Serena	1:0

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