Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 8

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Leonel Sánchez Lineros (Recoleta)


	Deportes Recoleta		Curicó Unido

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.2	3.05
	2.21	3.27	3.18
	2.17	3.43	3.15	Watch
	2.15	3	3.2
	2.22	3.4	3.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.33)	3.26 ↑ (3.08)	3.13 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Recoleta
42.2%

Draw
28.3%

Curicó Unido
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

30%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

28.7%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Recoleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Curicó Unido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Recoleta than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Curicó Unido than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Recoleta will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Curicó Unido will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Salazar A. (G) 3. Arismendy N. 5. Alarcon F. 16. Viveros B. 28. Rodriguez C. 7. Provoste B. 10. Arguinarena M. 15. Baez F. 21. Alvarez G. 9. Estigarribia G. (C) 19. Sanchez P.	22. Tello D. (G) 4. Colombo R. 19. de La Fuente R. (C) 39. Gomez J. P. 40. Oliver F. 5. Guisolfo B. 15. Sanhueza H. 16. Riveros R. 7. Fernandez N. 9. Benegas L. 17. Inostroza B.
Substitutes
17. Carvajal N. 6. Espinoza J. 20. Gonzalez C. 30. Saavedra Saavedra F. I. 4. Tomarelli F. 22. Vargas J. (G) 11. Viveros D.	13. Bustamante C. 18. Guzman R. 28. Ibarra H. 25. Lopes Acevedo M. 20. Ramirez Cuevas A. E. 8. Romo J. 1. Vergara T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Benegas L. ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, Sanchez P. ⚽,
35', Inostroza B. 🟨,
43', Oliver F. 🟨,
43', Viveros B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rodriguez C. ↓, Viveros D. ↑,
54', Sanhueza H. 🟨,
63', Inostroza B. ↓, Lopes Acevedo M. ↑,
63', Guisolfo B. 🟨,
69', Riveros R. ↓, Ibarra H. ↑,
72', Arguinarena M. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
72', Arismendy N. ↓, Saavedra Saavedra F. I. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Gonzalez C. ⚽,
82', Sanchez P. 🟨,
84', Estigarribia G. ↓, Carvajal N. ↑,
84', Viveros B. ↓, Tomarelli F. ↑,
85', Guisolfo B. ↓, Romo J. ↑,
85', Fernandez N. ↓, Bustamante C. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, Benegas L. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 14).

Recoleta is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Curicó Unido has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recoleta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Recoleta won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Recoleta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Recoleta	26	11	8	7	38:34	4	41
13	Curico Unido	26	6	9	11	22:39	-17	24

Last Results with these Odds

Curicó Unido - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.37%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Recoleta
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
12.04.26	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Recoleta	2:4 ✺
21.03.26	Rangers de Talca - Deportes Recoleta	2:4 ✺
13.03.26	Deportes Recoleta - Unión San Felipe	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Recoleta	3:1 ✺
27.02.26	Deportes Recoleta - Unión Española	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WWWLW
- Curicó Unido
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
11.04.26	Unión San Felipe - Curicó Unido	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Curicó Unido - Deportes Copiapó	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - Curicó Unido	4:2 ✺
15.03.26	Curicó Unido - Rangers de Talca	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Cobreloa - Curicó Unido	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
25.10.25	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	1:1
14.06.25	Curicó Unido - Deportes Recoleta	1:1
05.08.24	Curicó Unido - Deportes Recoleta	1:0
23.03.24	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	2:1

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