Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Play Offs - Final

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished


	Deportiva Venados		Alacranes de Durango

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.96	2.27
	3.47	2.69	2.34	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.25
	3.18	3.08	2.26	Watch
	2.7	3.4	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.84)	3.01 ↓ (3.4)	2.26 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportiva Venados
28.9%

Draw
30.5%

Alacranes de Durango
40.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.3%

27%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

27.6%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportiva Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Alacranes de Durango has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportiva Venados than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (+1%)

Deportiva Venados - Alacranes de Durango Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Aquino E. ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Diaz N. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 1, Castaneda F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

First leg.

Deportiva Venados is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alacranes de Durango's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Deportiva Venados may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Alacranes de Durango - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.75%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportiva Venados
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
03.05.26	Real Apodaca - Deportiva Venados	2:4 ✺
30.04.26	Deportiva Venados - Real Apodaca	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Deportiva Venados - Tritones Vallarta	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Tritones Vallarta - Deportiva Venados	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Deportiva Venados - Club Calor	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTWTW
- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
02.05.26	Alacranes de Durango - Halcones	2:1 ✺
29.04.26	Halcones - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Alacranes de Durango - Zacatepec Siglo	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Zacatepec Siglo - Alacranes de Durango	2:2 ✺
27.03.26	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WTTTT

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.10.26	Alacranes de Durango - Atlético Morelia	✺

Deportiva Venados - Alacranes de Durango