Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 13

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipu)

Referee: Llobet F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Maipú		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.75	3.6	Watch
	2.2	2.87	3.3
	2.25	2.9	3.45	Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.92
	2.23	2.82	3.82	Watch
	2.25	2.88	3.4
	2.19	2.8	3.72
	2.25	2.9	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.14)	2.85 ↓ (3.1)	3.58 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maipú
41.5%

Draw
32.6%

Alvarado
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

30.2%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

30.3%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maipú has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maipú than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Alvarado aligns with the current prediction.

Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Maipú (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Alvarado (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Maipú (votes: 1 - 50%). Alvarado (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pietrobono I. (G) 4. Paredes L. 2. Arnijas L. 6. Aguero Gimenez A. R. 3. Ozuna E. 5. Villarreal M. 8. Mansilla G. 7. Viguet M. 10. Eggel M. 11. Silva T. 9. Bonacci P.	1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Blasi B. 6. James J. 3. Monzon L. 5. Bolivar A. 8. Mansilla M. 7. Martinez E. 10. Bergara M. 11. Becker D. (C) 9. Susvielles J.
Substitutes
16. Bonfigli M. 15. Cruz A. 12. Galardi N. (G) 14. Paulini S. 17. Ramirez D. 19. Saccone F. 20. Sandoval I. 13. Vallejo L. 18. Yavante Gaitan D.	15. Aleo A. 16. Ascacibar J. 20. Bolzicco T. 17. Borgnino M. 12. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 18. Miori M. 14. Ortale M. 19. Ortiz D. 13. Silva K.
Coaches
Sara J.	Quattrocchi P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', Viguet M. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Mansilla G. ⚽, Aguero Gimenez A. R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
48', James J. 🟨,
50', Silva T. 🟨,
54', 2 - 0, Bonacci P. ⚽, Viguet M. (A),
56', Silva T. ↓, Bonfigli M. ↑,
60', Bolivar A. ↓, Borgnino M. ↑,
67', Martinez E. ↓, Ortiz D. ↑,
67', Blasi B. ↓, Silva K. ↑,
71', Paredes L. ↓, Vallejo L. ↑,
72', Mansilla G. ↓, Ramirez D. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Bonacci P. ⚽, Viguet M. (A),
84', Eggel M. ↓, Saccone F. ↑,
84', Viguet M. ↓, Cruz A. ↑,
86', Susvielles J. ↓, Ascacibar J. ↑,
86', Becker D. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
90+1', Vallejo L. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 16).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Alvarado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Deportivo Maipú will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Maipú won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 0.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Maipú won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maipú
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.25	Deportivo Madryn - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Los Andes - Deportivo Maipú	3:0 ✺
13.04.25	Deportivo Maipú - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Tristán Suárez - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Deportivo Maipú - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TLWTL
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.04.25	Alvarado - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Tristán Suárez - Alvarado	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Güemes - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.09.24	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	1:1
13.04.24	Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú	0:1
11.09.22	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	0:1
04.09.21	Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú	1:0
25.04.21	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	1:0

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