Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 9

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda (Santiago del Estero)

Referee: Cordoba C. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Güemes		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	4.2	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.8
	2.07	2.95	3.9	Watch
	2.06	2.95	4.16	Watch
	2	3	3.9
	2.03	2.9	4.09
	2.07	2.95	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.29)	2.95 ↑ (2.81)	3.99 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Güemes
45.3%

Draw
31.4%

Alvarado
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

32.8%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

32.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Güemes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Güemes's performance.

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Güemes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Güemes - Alvarado Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Güemes (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Acosta M. (G) 2. Juarez W. 3. Lopez F. 4. Bettini M. 6. Monserrat N. 5. Papa G. 7. Griffa E. 8. Gerez M. 10. Perez P. 9. Albertengo M. 11. Brylko H.	1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Blasi B. (C) 6. Monzon L. 3. Aleo A. 8. Gobetto J. 5. Bolivar A. 10. Borgnino M. 7. Bergara M. 9. Ortiz D. 11. Russo F.
Coaches
Vazquez M.	Quattrocchi P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Blasi B. 🟨,
39', Borgnino M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Griffa E. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
55', Papa G. 🟨,
59', Russo F. ↓, Becker D. ↑,
59', Gobetto J. ↓, Mansilla M. ↑,
64', 1 - 0, Veliz D. ⚽,
66', Bettini M. 🟨,
68', Veliz D. ↓, Brylko H. ↑,
68', Papa G. ↓, Fissore M. ↑,
77', Borgnino M. ↓, Ascacibar J. ↑,
83', Leguiza M. 🟨,
84', Gerez M. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Bolzicco T. ⚽,
90+3', Juarez W. ↓, Alvarez M. ↑,
90+3', Bergara M. ↓, James J. ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Güemes is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Alvarado is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Güemes is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Güemes won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:7 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Güemes won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.03.25	Deportivo Madryn - Güemes	1:0 ✺
23.03.25	Güemes - Deportivo Maipú	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Güemes - Tristán Suárez	0:1 ✺
02.03.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLT
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.03.25	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Alvarado - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	San Miguel - Alvarado	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Alvarado - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.08.24	Güemes - Alvarado	2:1
31.03.24	Alvarado - Güemes	0:0
14.07.23	Güemes - Alvarado	0:2
11.03.23	Alvarado - Güemes	2:1
12.06.22	Alvarado - Güemes	2:1

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