Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 12

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Referee: Cavallero L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Alvarado		Gimnasia y Tiro

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	4.5
	1.9	2.8	4.75
	1.99	2.75	4.7
	2.02	2.85	4.96
	1.99	2.79	4.89	Watch
	1.83	2.88	5
	1.98	2.71	4.8
	1.99	2.75	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.12)	2.83 ↓ (3.1)	4.79 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
47.7%

Draw
32.9%

Gimnasia y Tiro
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

30.3%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

27.5%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Gimnasia y Tiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gimnasia y Tiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alvarado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia y Tiro than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gimnasia y Tiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Alvarado - Gimnasia y Tiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alvarado will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Gimnasia y Tiro will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Blasi B. 6. Monzon L. 3. Aleo A. 7. Ascacibar J. 5. Bolivar A. 8. Mansilla M. 11. Becker D. (C) 10. Bergara M. 9. Ortiz D.	1. Abadia F. (G) 4. Chaves I. F. (C) 2. Guanini M. 6. Diaz G. 3. Tallura A. 8. Rojas F. 5. Birge M. 11. Rinaldi N. 7. Aguirre J. 10. Busse W. 9. Contin N.
Substitutes
20. Bolzicco T. 17. Borgnino M. 12. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 13. James J. 16. Martinez E. 18. Miori M. 14. Ortale M. 19. Susvielles J. 15. Vega F.	20. Buter L. 12. Cosentino F. (G) 16. Galetto J. 17. Heredia F. 14. Herrera M. 18. Mendez J. 13. Monti I. 15. Morello M. 19. Sivetti F.
Coaches
Quattrocchi P.	Quiroz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Bergara M. ⚽,
27', 1 - 1, Rojas F. ⚽,
36', Ortiz D. 🟨,
36', Guanini M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ortiz D. ↓, Susvielles J. ↑,
46', Ascacibar J. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
67', Busse W. ↓, Galetto J. ↑,
67', Contin N. ↓, Heredia F. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Bergara M. ⚽,
70', Bergara M. 🟨,
76', Rinaldi N. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
76', Tallura A. ↓, Sivetti F. ↑,
76', Chaves I. F. ↓, Buter L. ↑,
77', Bergara M. ↓, Miori M. ↑,
79', Birge M. 🟨,
79', Blasi B. 🟨,
83', Aleo A. ↓, James J. ↑,
87', Becker D. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 10).

Recent matches Alvarado is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gimnasia y Tiro is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alvarado could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Alvarado will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.25	Tristán Suárez - Alvarado	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Güemes - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLTWT
- Gimnasia y Tiro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.04.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Deportivo Madryn	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Deportivo Maipú - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Los Andes - Gimnasia y Tiro	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Tristán Suárez	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLTTL

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