Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 10

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Referee: Carranza A. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Alvarado		San Martín de Tucumán

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.7	2.9	Watch
	2.65	2.7	2.8
	2.7	2.75	2.85	Watch
	2.97	2.51	3.02	Watch
	2.62	2.75	2.88
	2.71	2.7	2.86
	2.7	2.75	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.7)	2.69 ↓ (2.97)	2.88 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
33.6%

Draw
34.3%

San Martín de Tucumán
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

31.2%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

30.8%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	62.5%	25%

Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alvarado will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). San Martin T will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Blasi B. (C) 6. Monzon L. 3. Aleo A. 5. Bolivar A. 8. Gobetto J. 7. Bergara M. 10. Borgnino M. 11. Ascacibar J. 9. Ortiz D.	1. Sand D. (C) 4. Murillo F. 2. Rodriguez G. 6. Osores M. 3. Zuliani H. 5. Abregu G. 8. Garcia M. 10. Cuevas J. 7. Hachen G. 11. Esquivel J. 9. Pino M.
Substitutes
18. Becker D. 20. Bolzicco T. 19. Castellano A. 12. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 15. Mansilla M. 16. Martinez Candia C. A. 14. Ortale M. 17. Russo F. 13. Silva K.	15. Cainelli N. 12. Carrizo N. (G) 17. Cisnero A. 13. Penalba T. 19. Prokop A. 14. Quiroz F. 18. Rodriguez G. 16. Vera U. 20. Veron M.
Coaches
Quattrocchi P.	Martos A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Murillo F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Borgnino M. 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Esquivel J. ⚽,
55', Bolivar A. 🟨,
59', Blasi B. 🟨,
62', Bergara M. ↓, Becker D. ↑,
62', Borgnino M. ↓, Castellano A. ↑,
74', Murillo F. ↓, Cainelli N. ↑,
74', Cuevas J. ↓, Vera U. ↑,
76', 0 - 2, Esquivel J. ⚽,
77', Aleo A. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
83', Hachen G. ↓, Cisnero A. ↑,
83', Esquivel J. ↓, Prokop A. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alvarado won 1.

Recent matches Alvarado is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

San Martin T is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Alvarado won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:7 (average 0.9:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Alvarado won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.04.25	Güemes - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Alvarado - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	San Miguel - Alvarado	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWTTL
- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.04.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Madryn	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Deportivo Maipú - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1 ✺
23.03.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Tristán Suárez - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	Los Andes - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.10.24	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	0:2
02.06.24	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	1:0
03.09.23	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1
24.04.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	2:0
13.03.22	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	3:1
24.07.21	Alvarado - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0
14.03.21	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	0:0

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