Match Info

Primera B - Round 23

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Deportivo Merlo		Villa Dálmine

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.90	2.65	2.50
	2.70	2.75	2.65
	2.83	2.66	2.90
	3.04	2.59	2.65	Watch
	2.65	2.60	2.85
	2.88	2.83	2.72
	2.90	2.60	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.7)	2.67 ↓ (2.75)	2.69 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Merlo
32%

Draw
34.1%

Villa Dálmine
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

32.7%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

34.5%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Villa Dálmine has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villa Dálmine than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dálmine Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Figueroa T. (G) 4. Aguerre F. 8. Benitez F. 7. Da Rosa J. E. 2. Figueredo L. 9. Hernandez R. 11. Maguicha D. 6. Minnicelli A. 5. Ojeda G. 10. Sandoval I. 3. Velasco A.	1. Rojas J. (G) 6. Agorreca N. 4. Gamba L. 11. Gargiulo V. 8. Garzino F. 3. Martinez D. 5. Nizzo M. 10. Prim S. 7. Solis M. 9. Torres G. 2. Zurita M.
Substitutes
18. Cabrera D. 19. Diaz A. 14. Ibarra L. 17. Paez A. M. 16. Quinteros E. 12. Ratti V. (G) 13. Sineiro C.	14. Britos M. 15. Carlucci V. 12. Friedrich G. (G) 18. Morales M. 13. Nievas A. 20. Oro P. 17. Ponzo T. 16. Ramon E. 19. Schultz E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Da Rosa J. E. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Agorreca N. ⚽,
30', Solis M. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Hernandez R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Hernandez R. ↓, Gugenheim C. ↑,
63', Nizzo M. ↓, Ponzo T. ↑,
63', Solis M. ↓, Morales M. ↑,
66', Prim S. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Ponzo T. ⚽,
75', Da Rosa J. E. ↓, Quinteros E. ↑,
76', Ojeda G. ↓, Cabrera D. ↑,
81', Gugenheim C. 🟨,
82', Maguicha D. ↓, Diaz A. ↑,
82', Benitez F. ↓, Paez A. M. ↑,
85', Zurita M. ↓, Ramon E. ↑,
85', Gargiulo V. ↓, Britos M. ↑,
86', Morales M. ↓, Carlucci V. ↑,
90+8', Gamba L. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 3.

Deportivo Merlo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Villa Dálmine has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Merlo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Villa Dalmine	38	17	13	8	38:23	15	64
15	Dep. Merlo	38	10	14	14	36:51	-15	44

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Merlo - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.33%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Villa Dálmine - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.95%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
27.06.26	Excursionistas - Deportivo Merlo	5:0 ✺
21.06.26	Arsenal Sarandí - Deportivo Merlo	4:2 ✺
14.06.26	Deportivo Merlo - Argentino de Merlo	2:2 ✺
05.06.26	Talleres de Remedios de Escalada - Deportivo Merlo	2:0 ✺
02.06.26	Deportivo Merlo - Deportivo Laferrere	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTLW
- Villa Dálmine
Argentinian Primera B
27.06.26	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Camioneros	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Villa Dálmine - Sportivo Italiano	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Villa Dálmine	0:2 ✺
06.06.26	Villa Dálmine - Villa San Carlos	0:0 ✺
31.05.26	Liniers - Villa Dálmine	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
22.02.26	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Merlo	0:1
03.08.25	Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dálmine	0:0
15.03.25	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Merlo	0:2
28.09.24	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Merlo	2:0
12.05.24	Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dálmine	1:0
13.10.14	Deportivo Merlo - Villa Dálmine	0:3

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