The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Excursionistas 54.7%
Draw 27.8%
Deportivo Merlo 17.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
49.4%
30.1%
20.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
51.8%
28.7%
19.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excursionistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excursionistas's performance.
Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
Excursionistas - Deportivo Merlo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez N. (G) 11. Alaniz M. 3. Arango M. 8. Avalos A. 10. Blanco M. 7. Espeche A. 4. Fernandez M. 2. Maizarez I. 6. Paulides A. 9. Polvera M. 5. Zoratti G.
1. Figueroa T. (G) 8. Aguerre F. 2. Barrientos L. 11. Busto J. 9. Da Rosa J. E. 7. Hernandez R. 3. Ibarra L. 6. Minnicelli A. 5. Ojeda G. 10. Sandoval I. 4. Vallejo L.
Substitutes
12. Blengio M. (G) 18. Chambi L. 15. Damiolini N. 19. Gimenez W. 16. Lopez M. 17. Pereyra J. 13. Rodriguez G. 20. Tellas G. 14. Valenzuela A.
15. Benitez F. 20. Cabrera D. 18. Cuenca C. 19. Diaz A. 14. Jimenez A. 17. Maguicha D. 16. Paez A. M. 12. Ratti V. (G) 13. Sineiro C.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Blanco M. ⚽,
25', Paulides A. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Espeche A. ⚽,
42', 3 - 0, Polvera M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Busto J. ↓, Cabrera D. ↑,
46', Minnicelli A. ↓, Maguicha D. ↑,
63', Polvera M. ↓, Gimenez W. ↑,
63', Zoratti G. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
71', Blanco M. ↓, Damiolini N. ↑,
71', Alaniz M. ↓, Chambi L. ↑,
75', Espeche A. ↓, Tellas G. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Gimenez W. ⚽,
85', 5 - 0, Lopez M. ⚽,
90+4', Fernandez M. 🟨,
90+5', Hernandez R. ↓, Cuenca C. ↑,
90+5', Ibarra L. ↓, Sineiro C. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excursionistas won 3.
Excursionistas is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Deportivo Merlo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Excursionistas is a strong favorite.
We predict that Excursionistas will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Excursionistas won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.9:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Excursionistas won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.8:0.8).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Excursionistas
38
22
8
8
59:30
29
74
15
Dep. Merlo
38
10
14
14
36:51
-15
44
Last Results with these Odds
Excursionistas - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 49.36%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Rodriguez N. (G) 
Chambi L. 
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