Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 28

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano (Moron)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Morón		Nueva Chicago

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	5	Watch
	1.9	2.85	4.5
	1.85	2.92	4.75	Watch
	1.88	3.09	5.17
	1.80	2.84	6.15	Watch
	1.95	2.8	4.6
	1.86	3.01	5.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.88)	2.93 ↓ (3)	5.03 ↑ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Morón
49.7%

Draw
31.7%

Nueva Chicago
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

30.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

30.3%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Morón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Nueva Chicago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nueva Chicago than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Deportivo Morón will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Nueva Chicago will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Morón: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Morón (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 2. Lorenzon F. 6. Vazquez F. 3. Livera J. 8. Olivares J. 5. Ferreira P. 11. Bittolo M. (C) 10. Gonzalez Y. 7. Sanguinetti F. 9. Costantino I.	1. Ferrero F. (C) 4. Martinez A. 2. Rodriguez J. 6. Aguirre A. 3. Arroyo D. 7. Rodriguez T. 5. Zalazar R. E. 8. Ortiz S. 11. Nouet F. 10. Rodriguez I. 9. Maggi I.
Substitutes
12. Acuna M. (G) 18. Baez F. 19. Beron J. 16. Contreras E. 13. Cortave M. 20. Fergonzi R. 17. Franco E. 15. Gonzalez G. 14. Kubiszyn S.	14. Abello D. 15. Cortes F. 12. Diaz L. (G) 18. Mendoza J. 13. Motroni J. 17. Ortiz M. 19. Petrecca N. 20. Sardinas J. 16. Toloza B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Maggi I. 🟨,
35', Ortiz S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Bittolo M. 🟨,
58', Zalazar R. E. 🟨,
64', 1 - 0, Olivares J. ⚽,
67', Olivares J. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
68', Martinez A. ↓, Cortes F. ↑,
68', Ortiz S. ↓, Ortiz M. ↑,
73', Nouet F. ↓, Petrecca N. ↑,
83', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Fergonzi R. ↑,
84', Zalazar R. E. ↓, Toloza B. ↑,
84', Maggi I. ↓, Mendoza J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Morón won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Deportivo Morón is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Morón won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Morón won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 0.8:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.08.25	Talleres de Remedios de Escalada - Deportivo Morón	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Deportivo Morón - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:1 ✺
04.08.25	Defensores de Belgrano - Deportivo Morón	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Deportivo Morón - Chacarita Juniors	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	San Telmo - Deportivo Morón	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTLW
- CA Nueva Chicago
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.08.25	Nueva Chicago - Central Norte	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Talleres de Remedios de Escalada - Nueva Chicago	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Nueva Chicago - Almirante Brown	1:3 ✺
27.07.25	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Nueva Chicago	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Nueva Chicago - Chaco For Ever	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.04.25	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	1:2
13.10.24	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	1:1
26.05.24	Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago	1:0
24.09.23	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	0:0
13.05.23	Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago	1:0
15.08.22	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Morón	1:1
09.02.20	Deportivo Morón - Nueva Chicago	0:0

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