Match Info

Liga Women - Round 12

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)


	Deportivo Pasto		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	8.3	4.15	1.34
	9.07	4.27	1.34
	9.25	4.12	1.35	Watch
	8.5	3.9	1.33
	8.8	4.33	1.32
	5.6	3.45	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.25 ↑ (5.6)	4.04 ↑ (3.45)	1.37 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
11%

Draw
22.6%

Atlético Nacional
66.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

26.1%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.4%

24.9%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Pasto's form might have worsened.

Atlético Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Nacional's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cardozo L. (G) 29. Angel S. 15. Hernandez A. 27. Quinones C. 4. Marin S. 22. Olarte A. 13. Erazo V. 8. Chaves D. 7. Preciado M. 9. Paez Zea K. S. (C) 11. Romero K.	22. Castano S. (G) 6. Ocampo L. 16. Garcia S. 15. Vidal K. 3. Zambrano A. 7. Martinez S. (C) 19. Mosquera M. 8. Moreno M. 5. Cedeno S. 21. Ibarguen K. 18. Sterling M.
Substitutes
17. Cuesta E. 21. De la Hoz D. 25. Pulgarin L. 33. Rodriguez Garcia L. 12. Velasco L. (G)	10. Alvarez L. 17. Ceballos C. 20. Orrego S. 12. Ortega E. (G) 13. Robayo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Preciado M. ⚽,
44', Paez Zea K. S. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Zambrano A. ⚽, Cedeno S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', Chaves D. 🟨,
62', 1 - 2, Ibarguen K. ⚽, Moreno M. (A),
66', Angel S. 🟨,
67', Zambrano A. 🟨,
72', Romero K. ↓, De la Hoz D. ↑,
72', Marin S. ↓, Pulgarin L. ↑,
73', Mosquera M. ↓, Alvarez L. ↑,
88', Chaves D. ↓, Cuesta E. ↑,
89', Moreno M. ↓, Robayo L. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Sterling M. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Women (Promotion Group: )).

Atlético Nacional is Qualified for Liga Women (Promotion Group )

Deportivo Pasto has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Atlético Nacional is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Deportivo Pasto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético Nacional is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Pasto won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto Women
Colombian Liga Women
18.05.26	América de Cali - Deportivo Pasto	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Deportivo Pasto - Fortaleza CEIF	1:2 ✺
04.05.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Deportivo Pasto - Millonarios	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLTL
- Atlético Nacional Medellin Women
Colombian Liga Women
16.05.26	Atlético Nacional - Once Caldas	1:0 ✺
11.05.26	Inter Palmira - Atlético Nacional	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Orsomarso - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Atlético Nacional - Real Santander	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Liga Women
02.03.25	Atlético Nacional - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
06.04.24	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional	1:1
02.03.23	Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional	0:3

Deportivo Pasto - Atlético Nacional: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide