Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 10

Date: 17 April 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Guillermo Laza (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Possi Y. (Arg)


	Deportivo Riestra		Mitre

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.75
	1.98	3.1	3.75
	2.05	3.1	3.9
	2.12	3.13	3.93
	2	3	3.8
	2.06	3.2	3.85
	2.02	3.2	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.32)	3.16 ↓ (3.22)	3.81 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Riestra
45.9%

Draw
29.6%

Mitre
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

28.2%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

27.2%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Riestra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Riestra's performance.

Mitre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mitre might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Riestra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mitre than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mitre could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	46.7%	13.3%

Deportivo Riestra - Mitre Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Deportivo Riestra will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Mitre will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 13 and 12).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Deportivo Riestra could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Deportivo Riestra will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportivo Riestra won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Riestra won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.04.23	Chaco For Ever - Deportivo Riestra	2:1 ✺
02.04.23	Deportivo Riestra - Independiente Rivadavia	3:3 ✺
26.03.23	Deportivo Maipú - Deportivo Riestra	1:1 ✺
20.03.23	Deportivo Riestra - Villa Dálmine	2:1 ✺
11.03.23	Deportivo Madryn - Deportivo Riestra	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTTWW
- CA Mitre
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.04.23	Mitre - Racing de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
03.04.23	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Mitre	0:1 ✺
26.03.23	Mitre - Tristán Suárez	0:1 ✺
18.03.23	Chacarita Juniors - Mitre	1:1 ✺
13.03.23	Aldosivi - Mitre	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.08.22	Mitre - Deportivo Riestra	1:1
22.08.21	Mitre - Deportivo Riestra	0:2
12.04.21	Deportivo Riestra - Mitre	2:0
20.10.17	Deportivo Riestra - Mitre	2:1

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