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Current Win Probability
Derby County U21 51%
Draw 22.1%
Leeds United U21 26.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.8%
22.9%
34.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44.3%
22.1%
33%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derby County U21's performance.
Leeds United U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leeds United U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County U21 than the current prediction. (-6.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Derby County U21 that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United U21 than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leeds United U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Derby County U21 - Leeds United U21 Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Evans H. (G) 10. Agustien D. 2. Bartley R. 6. Gill T. 3. Moloney R. 5. Osayande A. 7. Perry J. 4. Robinson D. 11. Stepien-Iwumene A. 8. Turley F. 9. Wheeldon L.
1. Mahady R. (G) 10. Chadwick-Chaplin R. 8. Cresswell A. 7. Douglas C. 3. Ferguson C. 9. Gray H. 5. Lopata-White R. 15. McFadden M. 4. Monteiro D. 6. Moore K. 17. Nfonkeu B.
Substitutes
12. Ebuka C. 14. Gordon I. 16. Green I. 15. Richards J. 13. Shattell J. (G)
2. Firth W. 14. McDonald J. . Morris J. 12. Ombang D. (G) . Pickles O.
Coaches
Buxton J.
Gardner S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Stepien-Iwumene A. ⚽, Osayande A. (A),
44', Turley F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Stepien-Iwumene A. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
55', McFadden M. ↓, Firth W. ↑,
56', Nfonkeu B. ↓, McDonald J. ↑,
56', Agustien D. ↓, Ebuka C. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Gray H. ⚽, Douglas C. (A),
67', Gill T. ↓, Gordon I. ↑,
67', Chadwick-Chaplin R. ↓, Pickles O. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Gray H. ⚽,
Preview
Last 5 head-to-head matches Harlequins won 2.
Harlequins is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Saracens is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Harlequins could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Harlequins is the unquestionable favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Harlequins won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 14 matches and goals 444:591 (average 22.2:29.6).
Including matches at home between the teams Harlequins won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 225:232 (average 25:25.8).
Watch
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Evans H. (G) 
Agustien D. 
Robinson D. 
Turley F. 
Mahady R. (G) 
Monteiro D. 
Firth W. 
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