Match Info

FAI Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	LOI TV


	Derry City		Dundalk

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.00	3.30	3.00
	2.05	3.3	3
	2.15	3.7	3.06
	2.16	3.47	3.14
	1.97	3.4	3.45
	2.07	3.45	3.06
	2.02	3.35	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.02)	3.42 ↓ (3.6)	3.12 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derry City
44.2%

Draw
26.6%

Dundalk
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

25.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

25.1%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Dundalk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundalk than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Derry City - Dundalk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Norcott T. (G) 3. McClean P. 4. Stott J. 19. Fleming B. 23. Dummigan C. 7. Duffy M. (C) 8. O'Reilly A. 17. Twisk N. 12. Burns D. 14. Chapman E. 29. Smith T.	1. Minogue E. (G) 3. Burns B. 4. Animasahun M. 24. Cornwall R. 27. McDaid D. 6. Dervin A. 7. Horgan D. 17. Tracey S. 11. Teahan R. 16. Vassenin E. 9. Dillon C.
Substitutes
22. Barr C. 27. Boyce L. 25. Grogan C. 24. Lyons-Foster B. 1. Maher B. (G) 36. McColgan M. 28. Olayinka J. 21. Santos K. 11. Whyte G.	18. Buckley K. 13. Cherrie P. (G) 15. Clarke T. 10. Gaxha L. 8. Groome H. 23. Keogh A. M. 12. Mulligan L. 5. Warren H. 31. Wilson J.
Coaches
Connolly M.	Kilduff C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', McDaid D. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Tracey S. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, McClean P. ⚽,
44', 2 - 1, Duffy M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', Dervin A. ↓, Buckley K. ↑,
58', McDaid D. ↓, Clarke T. ↑,
58', Dillon C. ↓, Gaxha L. ↑,
65', Cornwall R. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
66', Dummigan C. 🟨,
67', Burns D. ↓, Santos K. ↑,
72', Tracey S. ↓, Groome H. ↑,
76', Smith T. ↓, Boyce L. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Santos K. ⚽,
85', 4 - 1, Duffy M. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 2, Gaxha L. ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', Duffy M. ↓, Olayinka J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derry won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Derry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Derry is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derry won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:23. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Derry won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.4:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Derry City - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 45.02%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derry City
Irish Premier Division
30.08.26	Derry City - Shamrock Rovers	3:3 ✺
21.08.26	Bohemians Dublin - Derry City	5:3 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
14.08.26	University College Dublin - Derry City	1:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
07.08.26	Derry City - Sligo Rovers	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	St Patricks Athletic - Derry City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWWT
- Dundalk FC
Irish Premier Division
28.08.26	Drogheda United - Dundalk	2:3 ✺
21.08.26	Dundalk - Galway United	1:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
15.08.26	Dundalk - Castlebar Celtic	8:0 ✺
Irish Premier Division
07.08.26	Shamrock Rovers - Dundalk	3:2 ✺
31.07.26	Dundalk - Sligo Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
29.05.26	Dundalk - Derry City	2:1
10.04.26	Dundalk - Derry City	2:2
13.02.26	Derry City - Dundalk	2:2
18.10.24	Dundalk - Derry City	0:2
09.08.24	Derry City - Dundalk	1:1
31.05.24	Dundalk - Derry City	0:0
05.04.24	Derry City - Dundalk	4:1

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