The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Derry City 24.1%
Draw 27.2%
St Patricks Athletic 48.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
30.3%
28.4%
41.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30.1%
28.6%
41.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derry City's form might have worsened.
St Patricks Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St Patricks Athletic's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derry City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Patricks Athletic than the current prediction. (-7.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St Patricks Athletic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
12.5%
37.5%
50%
Derry City - St Patricks Athletic Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Derry will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). St Patricks will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for St Patricks: 15.4% โ 84.6%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 4.5 - under (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Norcott T. (G) 24. Lyons-Foster B. 4. Stott J. 3. McClean P. (C) 21. Santos K. 14. Chapman E. 17. Twisk N. 19. Fleming B. 12. Burns D. 15. Clarke J. 29. Smith T.
94. Anang J. (G) 4. Redmond J. (C) 2. Hoare S. 24. Turner L. 6. Lennon J. 7. Elbouzedi Z. 10. Leavy K. 19. Baggley B. 3. Breslin A. 21. Olusanya A. 9. Keena A.
Substitutes
22. Barr C. 32. Doherty T. 23. Dummigan C. 25. Grogan C. 35. Kelly L. 1. Maher B. (G) 10. Markey D. 34. O'Donnell C. 11. Whyte G.
23. Brown J. 27. Edmondson R. 8. Forrester C. 11. McClelland J. 33. McHale S. 16. Nugent D. 17. Palmer R. 1. Rogers D. (G) 48. Sheridan R.
Coaches
Connolly M.
Kenny S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Burns D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lyons-Foster B. ↓, Barr C. ↑,
53', Olusanya A. 🟨,
57', Keena A. ↓, Edmondson R. ↑,
58', Breslin A. ↓, McClelland J. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Santos K. ⚽, Burns D. (A),
63', Leavy K. ↓, Forrester C. ↑,
64', Baggley B. ↓, Sheridan R. ↑,
70', Clarke J. 🟨,
72', Santos K. ↓, Markey D. ↑,
75', Turner L. ↓, Palmer R. ↑,
80', Twisk N. ↓, Dummigan C. ↑,
80', Forrester C. 🟨,
85', Smith T. ↓, Doherty T. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derry won 1.
Derry is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Performances by St Patricks have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
St Patricks could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Derry has faced a series of away games on the road.
St Patricks is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Confirmed absences for Derry: Winchester C.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for St Patricks: Boyce R.
(Injury)
Power S.
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Derry: McClean J.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for St Patricks: Mata M. A.
(Muscle Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Derry has recorded 10 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:14 (averaging 1.3:0.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Derry against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 16:5 goals (averaging 1.6:0.5 per game).
Ireland
United Kingdom
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Norcott T. (G) 
McClean P. (C) 
Santos K. 
Twisk N. 
Anang J. (G) 
Baggley B. 
Olusanya A. 
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