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Current Win Probability
University College Dublin 18.8%
Draw 21.7%
Derry City 59.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
19.2%
21.8%
59%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18.8%
22.3%
60.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
University College Dublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
Derry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
The ML Model estimate for University College Dublin aligns with the current prediction.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
University College Dublin - Derry City Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. Douglas N. (G) 2. Murphy S. 3. Cailloce L. 5. Lennox C. 6. Wells A. 7. McCullagh M. 8. Dignam L. 10. Behan C. 21. Ogbonna G. 40. Smith H. 27. Sheeran E.
1. Maher B. (G) 2. Cotter B. 3. McClean P. 24. Lyons-Foster B. 17. Twisk N. 8. O'Reilly A. 23. Dummigan C. 29. Smith T. 12. Burns D. 15. Clarke J. 7. Duffy M. (C)
Substitutes
15. Akinrintayo C. 11. Alonge M. 20. Andrade K. (G) 26. Costello D. 13. Goad J. 25. Lavin G. 31. Mohan S. 22. Morley T. 24. Norval S.
22. Barr C. 5. Chapman E. . Curran E. 32. Doherty T. . McColgan M. 13. Norcott T. (G) 33. O'Brien O. 28. Olayinka J. 4. Stott J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Duffy M. ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Dignam L. ⚽,
45', Lyons-Foster B. ↓, Stott J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Cotter B. ↓, Barr C. ↑,
60', Twisk N. ↓, Chapman E. ↑,
60', Burns D. ↓, Olayinka J. ↑,
62', Behan C. ↓, Akinrintayo C. ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Smith T. ⚽,
73', Ogbonna G. ↓, Goad J. ↑,
78', Barr C. 🟨,
85', McCullagh M. ↓, Mohan S. ↑,
89', Smith T. ↓, McColgan M. ↑,
90', Clarke J. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UCD won 0.
UCD is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Derry has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).
UCD may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Derry is the obvious favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UCD won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 11:61. (average 0.6:3.1).
Including home matches between the teams, UCD won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 3:35. (average 0.3:3.2).
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Douglas N. (G) 
Lyons-Foster B. 
Twisk N. 
Dummigan C. 
