Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Casatese

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.18	3.1	3.15
	2.11	3.1	3.24
	2.15	3.22	3.2
	2.12	3.13	3.26
	2.18	3.1	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.17)	3.11 ↓ (3.2)	3.18 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
42.3%

Draw
29.2%

Casatese
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

28.4%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

27.3%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Casatese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Casatese aligns with the current prediction.

Desenzano Calvina - Casatese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Procaccio A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
67', 2 - 0, Antonelli F. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 3.

Desenzano is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Casatese has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Desenzano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Desenzano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group B
04.05.25	Desenzano Calvina - Castellanzese	0:2 ✺
27.04.25	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
17.04.25	Desenzano Calvina - Vigasio	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Desenzano Calvina - Ciliverghe di Mazzano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWWWW
- USD Casatese
Italian Serie D - Group B
04.05.25	SantAngelo - Casatese	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
17.04.25	Varesina - Casatese	2:3 ✺
13.04.25	Casatese - Breno	6:0 ✺
06.04.25	Chievo - Casatese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
27.04.25	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1
15.12.24	Desenzano Calvina - Casatese	3:1
03.12.23	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1
23.04.23	Desenzano Calvina - Casatese	1:3
11.12.22	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	3:1
03.04.22	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	1:1
21.11.21	Desenzano Calvina - Casatese	1:2

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