Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 38

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Castellanzese

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.8	6.2
	1.48	3.8	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 (1.48)	3.8 (3.8)	6.2 (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
61.4%

Draw
23.9%

Castellanzese
14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

23.5%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Desenzano Calvina have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Castellanzese have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellanzese than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Boix J. ⚽,
44', 0 - 2, Colombo R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs: ) and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: )).

Desenzano is Qualified for Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs )

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Desenzano is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Desenzano will win today's game, with odds of 1.48.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Desenzano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group B
27.04.25	Casatese - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
17.04.25	Desenzano Calvina - Vigasio	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Desenzano Calvina - Ciliverghe di Mazzano	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Ospitaletto - Desenzano Calvina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWWWL
- USD Castellanzese
Italian Serie D - Group B
27.04.25	Castellanzese - Folgore Caratese	3:2 ✺
17.04.25	SantAngelo - Castellanzese	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Castellanzese - Chievo	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Varesina - Castellanzese	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Castellanzese - Sangiuliano City Nova	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
22.12.24	Castellanzese - Desenzano Calvina	1:1
25.02.24	Castellanzese - Desenzano Calvina	0:3
22.10.23	Desenzano Calvina - Castellanzese	1:1
27.02.22	Desenzano Calvina - Castellanzese	0:1
20.10.21	Castellanzese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2

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