Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 5

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni (Ospitaletto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport MIX


	Desenzano Calvina		Lecco

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.00	2.75
	2.35	2.95	2.75	Watch
	2.61	3.15	2.91
	2.39	2.98	3.01	Watch
	2.55	2.90	2.85
	2.32	2.81	3.11	Watch
	2.41	3.05	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.48)	2.98 ↑ (2.9)	2.88 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
37.6%

Draw
30.7%

Lecco
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

30.8%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

29.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Lecco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecco than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Desenzano Calvina - Lecco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Minelli S. (G) 70. Parlato M. 19. Pilati A. 6. Panelli T. 2. Milani L. 43. Lupano L. 15. De Francesco A. (C) 7. Moscati M. 77. Liberati F. 34. Ubaldi L. 10. Millico V.	22. Vettorel T. (G) 4. Comi P. 5. Arena M. 24. Sidler S. 11. Urso O. 6. Mallamo A. 21. Metlika A. 8. Bonaiti S. (C) 45. Rizzo M. 17. Pellegrino G. 79. Moutassime A.
Substitutes
20. Andreis D. 49. Baldi L. 12. Bastianoni F. (G) 24. Biondi K. 23. Bono F. 22. Cassin M. (G) 3. Giorgi L. 17. Onofrio S. 30. Procaccio A. 93. Reggiori P. 9. Santini C. 8. Tomaselli S.	13. Bordoni T. 9. Casarotto M. 1. Dalmasso J. (G) 83. Fama S. 30. Fasan N. 19. Litti M. 99. Manetti G. 20. Mihali L. 75. Nova E. 3. Sinn L. 27. Triacca D. 12. Zouaghi T. (G)
Coaches
Gaburro M.	Valente F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
26', Lupano L. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Pellegrino G. ⚽, Moutassime A. (A),
43', 0 - 2, Pellegrino G. ⚽, Moutassime A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ubaldi L. ↓, Santini C. ↑,
59', 0 - 3, Arena M. ⚽,
60', Lupano L. ↓, Biondi K. ↑,
60', Pellegrino G. ↓, Fasan N. ↑,
60', Moutassime A. ↓, Casarotto M. ↑,
66', Parlato M. ↓, Andreis D. ↑,
66', De Francesco A. ↓, Reggiori P. ↑,
67', 1 - 3, Liberati F. ⚽,
69', Bonaiti S. 🟨,
72', Moscati M. ↓, Procaccio A. ↑,
74', Comi P. ↓, Sinn L. ↑,
74', Sidler S. ↓, Triacca D. ↑,
77', Biondi K. 🟨,
83', Rizzo M. ↓, Manetti G. ↑,
84', Pilati A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Desenzano have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lecco has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lecco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Desenzano has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Desenzano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Desenzano	9	3	4	2	8:7	1	13
15	Lecco	8	2	3	3	6:8	-2	9

Last Results with these Odds

Lecco - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 33.13%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Brescia - Desenzano Calvina	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
03.09.26	Trento - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
31.08.26	Desenzano Calvina - Trento	0:0 ✺
23.08.26	Pro Vercelli - Desenzano Calvina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WLWTT
- Calcio Lecco 1912
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Lecco - Giana Erminio	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Trento - Lecco	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Treviso - Lecco	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Lecco - Union ArzignanoChiampo	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Lecco - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Lecco - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 penalties

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