Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 29 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange (Differdange)

Referee: Kringstad S. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	S4C Clic, S4C


	Differdange 03		The New Saints

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.25	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.4
	1.95	3.5	3.6	Watch
	1.94	3.45	3.5
	1.86	3.71	3.81	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.1
	2.01	3.66	3.68	Watch
	2.05	2.96	3.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.05)	3.42 ↑ (2.96)	3.47 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Differdange 03
46.4%

Draw
27%

The New Saints
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

30.2%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.9%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Differdange 03 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

The New Saints has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Differdange 03 than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for The New Saints than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	15.8%	10.5%

Differdange 03 - The New Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Differdange 03 will win (votes: 28 - 73.7%). TNS will win (votes: 4 - 10.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Differdange 03: 59.7% – 87.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Differdange 03 (votes: 15 - 71.4%). TNS (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Differdange 03 (1.24) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Differdange 03 (votes: 16 - 69.6%). TNS (votes: 3 - 13%). Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
84. Felipe (G) 4. D'Anzico K. 5. Brusco T. 14. Bedouret J. 25. Franzoni G. (C) 20. Pinto R. 55. Leandro Borges 7. Mfoumou B. 32. Lempereur D. 23. Hadji S. 10. Abreu A.	1. Shepperd N. (G) 3. Marshall J. 16. McGahey H. 6. Bodenham J. 10. Redmond D. (C) 14. Williams D. 4. Corness D. 19. Clark B. 17. Williams J. 9. Charles K. 8. Brobbel R.
Substitutes
9. Buch A. 1. Da Costa E. (G) 34. El Idrissi A. 66. Gomes Ricciulli J. P. 11. Haboubi A. 39. Jakobi L. 88. Mendes Alves P. 26. Mendes F. 22. Van Buggenhout A. (G)	5. Astles R. 27. Canavan J. 11. Cieslewicz A. 64. Craig K. 7. Daniels J. 30. Edwards J. (G) 18. Holden R. 24. Nadin J. 15. Oteh A. 2. Owen J. 26. Phillips L. 28. Wilson B.
Coaches
Spitoni M.	Harrison C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Abreu A. 🟨,
21', Pinto R. 🟨,
30', Williams J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Marshall J. 🟨,
64', Redmond D. 🟨,
66', Clark B. 🟨,
67', Brusco T. 🟨,
68', 1 - 0, Hadji S. (Pen),
72', Corness D. ↓, Wilson B. ↑,
72', Williams J. ↓, Holden R. ↑,
72', Brobbel R. ↓, Oteh A. ↑,
75', Mfoumou B. ↓, Jakobi L. ↑,
77', Marshall J. ↓, Daniels J. ↑,
81', Clark B. ↓, Owen J. ↑,
83', Hadji S. ↓, Buch A. ↑,
83', Pinto R. ↓, El Idrissi A. ↑,
90+3', Abreu A. ↓, Haboubi A. ↑,
90+3', Franzoni G. ↓, Gomes Ricciulli J. P. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

Differdange 03 has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

TNS is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Differdange 03 has had a series of away games.

Differdange 03 will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Differdange 03 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Differdange 03 - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 43.6%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Differdange 03
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.25	The New Saints - Differdange 03	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Differdange 03 - Drita Gjilan	2:3 ✺
08.07.25	Drita Gjilan - Differdange 03	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
28.06.25	RAAL La Louvière - Differdange 03	0:0 ✺
26.06.25	UNA Strassen - Differdange 03	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLLTW
- The New Saints
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.25	The New Saints - Differdange 03	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Shkendija Tetovo - The New Saints	2:1 ET ✺
08.07.25	The New Saints - Shkendija Tetovo	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.06.25	Ayr United - The New Saints	1:1 ✺
17.06.25	Larne - The New Saints	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.25	The New Saints - Differdange 03	0:1

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