Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Beroe (Stara Zagora)

Referee: Marshall T. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Belarus	Belarus 5
Germany	Laola1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Dinamo Minsk		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	3.20	3.70	1.91
	3.40	3.30	1.98
	3.50	3.40	2.02
	3.51	3.56	2.00
	2.72	3.4	2.48	Watch
	3.65	3.35	1.92
	3.37	3.89	2.01
	3.25	3.45	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.14)	3.51 ↓ (3.68)	2.03 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dinamo Minsk
27.9%

Draw
26.4%

Neftchi Baku
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

25.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

26%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dinamo Minsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dinamo Minsk's form might have worsened.

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neftchi Baku's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo Minsk than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dinamo Minsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neftchi Baku, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	47.1%	29.4%

Dinamo Minsk - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Dinamo Minsk will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Neftchi will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Neftchi (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shimakovich I. (G) 44. Gurban G. 12. Ivanov A. 26. Kalinin V. 25. Toure A. 8. Selyava A. (C) 78. Sokolovskiy A. 42. Abdullahi F. 30. Djimet M. 10. Vardanyan K. 7. Malashevich E.	1. Balayev E. (G) 77. Sacko F. 55. Gravillon A. 17. Khachayev M. 3. Abbasov R. 20. Gustavo Klismahn 18. Mathew I. 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 33. Breno Almeida 29. Tupta L. 11. Faraj I.
Substitutes
27. Aleksandrov M. 11. Alykulov G. 67. Begunov R. 5. Dushevskiy D. 19. Guibero R. 80. Gweth L. 9. Lutskovich A. 13. Poloz V. 21. Radkevich D. (G) 3. Shvetsov M. 24. Vakulich A. 23. Zhechko A.	14. Badalov E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 4. Camalov E. 6. D'Almeida S. 5. Igor Ribeiro 82. Mammadli M. 13. Piric K. (G) 7. Safarov E. 19. Salyanskiy A. 97. Sambou B. 24. Seck M.
Coaches
Shagoyko A.	Vernidub Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Breno Almeida ⚽,
24', Sokolovskiy A. 🟨,
30', Gravillon A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Tupta L. ↓, Sambou B. ↑,
66', Vardanyan K. ↓, Gweth L. ↑,
66', Sokolovskiy A. ↓, Zhechko A. ↑,
74', Mathew I. ↓, D'Almeida S. ↑,
74', Breno Almeida ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
83', Djimet M. ↓, Alykulov G. ↑,
83', Gurban G. ↓, Shvetsov M. ↑,
86', Mahmudov E. ↓, Igor Ribeiro ↑,
88', Gweth L. 🟨,
90+1', Malashevich E. ↓, Begunov R. ↑,
90+4', Sacko F. 🟥,

Preview

First leg result: 4-2. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadion Beroe.

Dinamo Minsk is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Neftchi is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Neftchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Dinamo Minsk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dinamo Minsk
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Minsk	2:4 ✺
16.07.26	Sileks - Dinamo Minsk	0:2 penalties ✺
09.07.26	Dinamo Minsk - Sileks	0:1 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
02.07.26	Minsk - Dinamo Minsk	0:3 ✺
27.06.26	Dinamo Minsk - Vitebsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWT
- Neftchi Baku
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Minsk	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Osijek	0:1 ✺
10.07.26	Radnički Niš - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
06.07.26	Partizan - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ✺
02.07.26	Neftchi Baku - CFR Cluj	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
22.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Minsk	2:4

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