Match Info

Premier League - Round 22

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi)

Referee: Rahimov K. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Shamakhi		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	3.55	3	1.98	Watch
	3.86	3.19	2.04
	3.57	3.14	2.05	Watch
	3.7	2.9	2
	3.64	3.33	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↓ (3.77)	3.11 ↓ (3.18)	2.02 ↑ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shamakhi
25.1%

Draw
29.5%

Neftchi Baku
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.4%

28.9%

46.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shamakhi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	9.1%	63.6%

Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Shamakhi will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Neftchi will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Neftchi: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shamakhi (votes: 1 - 50%). Neftchi (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Shamakhi (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Shamakhi (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Neftchi (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ricardo Fernandes (G) 82. Abbasov R. 7. Adilkhanov E. 5. Agcabayov A. (C) 13. Apolinario R. 11. Balau D. 4. Cezar 44. David Santos 97. Mammadov O. 9. Rossi K. 2. Rzayev A.	13. Piric K. (G) 15. Badalov E. 33. Breno Almeida 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 18. Mathew I. 77. Sacko F. 7. Safarov E. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M.
Substitutes
99. Hashimov S. (G) 21. Ismayilov B. 80. Ismayilov H. 17. Maharramli R. 90. Mansumov D. 77. Mehraliyev N. 48. Muradov R. 62. Seyiahmadov A. (G) 19. Shuaibu A. 27. Suleymanov E. 10. Tircoveanu A. 3. Veremeev V.	45. Aboubakar V. 91. Azizov N. (G) 1. Balayev E. (G) 4. Camalov E. 28. Curci A. 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 47. Mammadov M. 22. Ortiz L. 19. Salyanskiy A. 70. Shtogrin A. 10. Vargas F.
Coaches
Abbasov A.	Vernidub Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Sacko F. ↓, Shtogrin A. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
46', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
60', 0 - 1, Aboubakar V. ⚽,
65', Mahmudov E. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,
68', Adilkhanov E. ↓, Tircoveanu A. ↑,
69', Mammadov O. ↓, Shuaibu A. ↑,
73', Shtogrin A. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Cezar ⚽,
84', Rossi K. 🟨,
85', Faraj I. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
88', Rzayev A. ↓, Maharramli R. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Aboubakar V. ⚽,
90+7', Seck M. 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 2, Rossi K. (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', Balau D. ↓, Suleymanov E. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 0.

Shamakhi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Neftchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Neftchi is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 17:39. (average 0.9:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Shamakhi won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15
6	Shamakhi	6	2	3	1	8:6	2	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shamakhi FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.02.26	İmişli - Shamakhi	0:0 ✺
16.02.26	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
10.02.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
05.02.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
31.01.26	Kapaz - Shamakhi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 TTLWW
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
15.02.26	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	1:3 ✺
10.02.26	Neftchi Baku - Gabala	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku	0:4 ✺
23.01.26	Neftchi Baku - Zira	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
16.08.25	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	1:1
07.04.25	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	0:2
31.01.25	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	1:0
08.11.24	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	2:2
31.08.24	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	0:0
14.05.23	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	1:1
12.03.23	Shamakhi - Neftchi Baku	0:1

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