Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Palms Sports Arena (Baku)

Referee: Fellas K. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Neftchi Baku		Dinamo Minsk

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.1	4.75	Watch
	1.95	3.10	3.75
	1.82	3.2	4.25	Watch
	1.77	3.24	4.58
	1.98	3.34	3.85	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.5
	1.89	3.41	4.76	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.53)	3.22 ↓ (3.25)	4.37 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
50.2%

Draw
28.7%

Dinamo Minsk
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

28.7%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Neftchi Baku's performance.

Dinamo Minsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dinamo Minsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Neftchi Baku that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo Minsk than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dinamo Minsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.9%	18.7%	9.4%

Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Minsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Neftchi will win (votes: 23 - 71.9%). Dinamo Minsk will win (votes: 3 - 9.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Neftchi: 56.3% – 87.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Balayev E. (G) 77. Sacko F. 55. Gravillon A. 5. Igor Ribeiro 24. Seck M. 20. Gustavo Klismahn 6. D'Almeida S. 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 33. Breno Almeida 29. Tupta L. 11. Faraj I.	1. Shimakovich I. (G) 44. Gurban G. 12. Ivanov A. 26. Kalinin V. 25. Toure A. 8. Selyava A. (C) 23. Zhechko A. 42. Abdullahi F. 30. Djimet M. 10. Vardanyan K. 7. Malashevich E.
Substitutes
3. Abbasov R. 14. Badalov E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 4. Camalov E. 17. Khachayev M. 82. Mammadli M. 18. Mathew I. 13. Piric K. (G) 7. Safarov E. 91. Salyanskiy A. 97. Sambou B. 80. Shirinov A.	27. Aleksandrov M. 11. Alykulov G. 2. Dubatovka M. 5. Dushevskiy D. 19. Guibero R. 80. Gweth L. 9. Lutskovich A. 13. Poloz V. 21. Radkevich D. (G) 3. Shvetsov M. 78. Sokolovskiy A. 24. Vakulich A.
Coaches
Vernidub Y.	Shagoyko A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Mahmudov E. ⚽, Gustavo Klismahn (A),
8', 2 - 0, Selyava A. (Own goal),
36', 2 - 1, Vardanyan K. ⚽, Malashevich E. (A),
45+2', Abdullahi F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Balayev E. ↓, Cafarov R. ↑,
47', 2 - 2, Malashevich E. ⚽, Vardanyan K. (A),
54', Sacko F. 🟨,
57', 2 - 3, Vardanyan K. ⚽, Djimet M. (A),
59', Zhechko A. ↓, Sokolovskiy A. ↑,
60', Mahmudov E. ↓, Mathew I. ↑,
60', Seck M. ↓, Abbasov R. ↑,
60', D'Almeida S. ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
66', Breno Almeida ↓, Sambou B. ↑,
73', Djimet M. ↓, Alykulov G. ↑,
73', Vardanyan K. ↓, Gweth L. ↑,
76', Alykulov G. (Penalty Awarded),
76', 2 - 4, Alykulov G. ⚽,
90+2', Toure A. ↓, Vakulich A. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Neftchi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dinamo Minsk is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Neftchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Neftchi could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Club Friendly
13.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Osijek	0:1 ✺
10.07.26	Radnički Niš - Neftchi Baku	0:3 ✺
06.07.26	Partizan - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ✺
02.07.26	Neftchi Baku - CFR Cluj	1:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
23.05.26	Kapaz - Neftchi Baku	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLW
- FC Dinamo Minsk
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Sileks - Dinamo Minsk	0:2 penalties ✺
09.07.26	Dinamo Minsk - Sileks	0:1 ✺
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
02.07.26	Minsk - Dinamo Minsk	0:3 ✺
27.06.26	Dinamo Minsk - Vitebsk	1:1 ✺
21.06.26	Neman Grodno - Dinamo Minsk	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWTW

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