Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Diocesano		Don Benito

	1	X	2
	4.15	3.3	1.75
	4.17	3.38	1.81	Watch
	4.2	3.1	1.83
	4.39	3.28	1.76
	4.2	3.2	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.22 ↓ (5)	3.25 ↓ (3.55)	1.79 ↑ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diocesano
21.5%

Draw
27.9%

Don Benito
50.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

25.7%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

24.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diocesano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Don Benito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Don Benito might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Don Benito than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Don Benito could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Diocesano - Don Benito Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Diocesano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Don Benito is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Don Benito is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Diocesano won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Diocesano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.12.25	Santa Amalia - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Diocesano - Azuaga	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gévora - Diocesano	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Diocesano - Calamonte	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Puebla de la Calzada - Diocesano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWTTL
- CD Don Benito
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.12.25	Don Benito - Villafranca	3:0 ✺
14.12.25	Don Benito - Jerez	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Santa Amalia - Don Benito	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Azuaga - Don Benito	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Gévora - Don Benito	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
25.02.24	Don Benito - Diocesano	1:0
12.10.23	Diocesano - Don Benito	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
30.04.23	Don Benito - Diocesano	0:3
17.12.22	Diocesano - Don Benito	4:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
12.11.17	Diocesano - Don Benito	2:0

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