Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Diocesano		Jerez

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.1	3.7
	1.96	3.11	3.92
	1.95	3.1	3.6
	1.93	3.06	3.91
	1.93	3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.3)	3.07 ↑ (2.96)	3.83 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diocesano
46.8%

Draw
29.5%

Jerez
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

30.5%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

32.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diocesano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Diocesano's performance.

Jerez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jerez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerez than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Diocesano - Jerez Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 5)
54', 0 - 1, ⚽,
63', 0 - 2, (Penalty Awarded),
66', 0 - 3, ⚽,
73', 0 - 4, ⚽,
84', 1 - 4, ⚽,
88', 1 - 5, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Diocesano won 3.

Recent form of Diocesano has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Jerez has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Diocesano won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home match between the teams, Diocesano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Jerez CF	4	1	1	2	4:6	-2	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
11.01.26	Villafranca - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Diocesano - Don Benito	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Santa Amalia - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Diocesano - Azuaga	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gévora - Diocesano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWT
- Jerez CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
11.01.26	Montehermoso - Jerez	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Jerez - Villafranca	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Jerez - Villanovense	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Don Benito - Jerez	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Jerez - Cabeza del Buey	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
23.03.25	Diocesano - Jerez	4:1
10.11.24	Jerez - Diocesano	0:2
14.01.24	Jerez - Diocesano	2:1
13.03.22	Jerez - Diocesano	1:0
13.12.20	Jerez - Diocesano	0:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
03.09.17	Jerez - Diocesano	3:0

Diocesano - Jerez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide