Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 17

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Villafranca		Diocesano

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.15	2.82
	2.3	3.37	2.82
	2.4	3	2.7
	2.32	3.25	2.67
	2.36	3.25	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.17)	3.2 ↑ (3.19)	2.74 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villafranca
38.8%

Draw
28.2%

Diocesano
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

28.5%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

27.3%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villafranca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Diocesano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villafranca than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Villafranca - Diocesano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', 🟥,
81', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villafranca won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Villafranca won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Villafranca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Villafranca	4	1	0	3	4:7	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SP Villafranca
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
04.01.26	Jerez - Villafranca	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Don Benito - Villafranca	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Villafranca - Santa Amalia	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Azuaga - Villafranca	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Villafranca - Gévora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TLLTW
- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
04.01.26	Diocesano - Don Benito	0:1 ✺
20.12.25	Santa Amalia - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Diocesano - Azuaga	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gévora - Diocesano	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Diocesano - Calamonte	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
23.02.25	Diocesano - Villafranca	0:1
13.10.24	Villafranca - Diocesano	2:2
10.03.24	Villafranca - Diocesano	3:1
22.10.23	Diocesano - Villafranca	2:3
24.04.22	Villafranca - Diocesano	1:1
18.12.21	Diocesano - Villafranca	3:1

Villafranca - Diocesano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide