Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Jerez		Villafranca

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.1
	1.75	3.3	4.15
	1.8	3.44	4.14
	1.8	3.2	4
	1.76	3.4	4.18
	1.8	3.4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.77)	3.33 ↓ (3.4)	4.1 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerez
50.8%

Draw
27.1%

Villafranca
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

26.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

25.7%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Villafranca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerez than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villafranca than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Jerez - Villafranca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, ⚽,
81', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jerez won 0.

Jerez is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Villafranca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Jerez is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Jerez won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jerez won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Jerez CF	4	1	1	2	4:6	-2	4
15	Villafranca	4	1	0	3	4:7	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jerez CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.12.25	Jerez - Villanovense	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Don Benito - Jerez	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Jerez - Cabeza del Buey	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Santa Amalia - Jerez	2:2 ✺
16.11.25	Jerez - Llerenense	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WTTTW
- SP Villafranca
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.12.25	Don Benito - Villafranca	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Villafranca - Santa Amalia	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Azuaga - Villafranca	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Villafranca - Gévora	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Calamonte - Villafranca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
06.04.25	Villafranca - Jerez	3:2
24.11.24	Jerez - Villafranca	0:0
04.02.24	Jerez - Villafranca	1:1
24.09.23	Villafranca - Jerez	2:0
29.01.23	Jerez - Villafranca	1:1
25.09.22	Villafranca - Jerez	1:4
27.02.22	Jerez - Villafranca	0:0

Jerez - Villafranca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide