Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 19 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Tele2 Arena (Stockholm)

Referee: Smajc D. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport Austria 8
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 9
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Djurgården		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.7	3.7
	1.93	3.5	3.4
	2	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2	3.69	3.78
	1.92	3.72	3.64	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	2.01	3.69	3.75
	2	3.6	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.49)	3.61 ↑ (3.32)	3.61 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Djurgården
47.9%

Draw
26%

Legia Warsaw
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

28.5%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

28.8%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Djurgården has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Djurgården's performance.

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Legia Warsaw might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Djurgården than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Djurgården that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Legia Warsaw could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.7%	13.2%	15.1%

Djurgården - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Djurgården will win (votes: 38 - 76%). Legia will win (votes: 5 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 14%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Djurgården: 64.2% – 87.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Rinne J. (G) 18. Stahl A. 4. Une-Larsson J. 3. Danielson M. (C) 27. Kosugi K. 13. Stensson D. 14. Sabovic B. 23. Wikheim G. 16. Gulliksen T. 20. Nguen T. C. 11. Hummet D.	27. Kobylak G. (G) 13. Wszolek P. (C) 42. Sergio Barcia 3. Kapuadi S. 23. Kun P. 5. Goncalves C. 21. Celhaka J. 25. Morishita R. 11. Chodyna K. 28. Gual M. 82. Luquinhas
Substitutes
22. Aslund P. 19. Bergh V. 40. Croon M. (G) 15. Fallenius O. 29. Haarala S. 45. Jansson O. (G) 26. Priske A. 9. Radetinac H. 6. Schuller R. 17. Therkildsen P.	80. Adkonis J. 17. Alfarela M. 50. Banasik W. (G) 57. Jedrasik J. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Majchrzak J. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 51. Mozie P. 52. Olewinski O. 7. Pekhart T. 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Bjorknesjo R.	Feio G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Nguen T. C. ⚽, Stensson D. (A),
43', Sabovic B. 🟨,
45+4', 2 - 0, Hummet D. ⚽, Nguen T. C. (A),
45+5', Gual M. 🟨,
45+5', Feio G. 🟨,
45+11', Morishita R. 🟨,
45+15', Kapuadi S. 🟨,
45+16', Danielson M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 2 - 1, Wszolek P. ⚽, Chodyna K. (A),
62', Gulliksen T. ↓, Aslund P. ↑,
63', Goncalves C. ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
63', Kapuadi S. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
72', Chodyna K. 🟨,
72', Celhaka J. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
76', 3 - 1, Aslund P. ⚽, Stensson D. (A),
81', Chodyna K. ↓, Szczepaniak M. ↑,
81', Luquinhas ↓, Adkonis J. ↑,
84', Kosugi K. 🟨,
89', Stensson D. ↓, Schuller R. ↑,
89', Wikheim G. ↓, Radetinac H. ↑,
90+4', Nguen T. C. ↓, Fallenius O. ↑,
90+4', Hummet D. ↓, Haarala S. ↑,

Preview

Djurgården in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Legia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Legia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Legia have a series of guest games.

Djurgården will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Djurgården: Johansson P. (Knee Injury) Tenho M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Legia: Augustyniak R. (Injury) Elitim J. (Knee Injury) Kapustka B. (Yellow Cards) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury) Oyedele M. (Ankle Injury) Pankov R. (Red Card) Tobiasz K. (Arm Injury) Vinagre R. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Djurgårdens IF
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	Vikingur Reykjavik - Djurgården	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.12.24	Djurgården - HJK	6:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	The New Saints - Djurgården	0:1 ✺
Swedish Allsvenskan
10.11.24	Djurgården - Norrköping	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Djurgården - Panathinaikos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWWW
- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.12.24	Legia Warsaw - Lugano	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.12.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Cup
05.12.24	ŁKS Łódź - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.24	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Omonia - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWTW

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