Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 17

Date: 1 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Stal Mielec		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.5	1.85	Watch
	4	3.5	1.87
	3.75	3.6	1.9	Watch
	4.08	3.73	1.93
	4	3.71	1.89	Watch
	3.8	3.5	1.8
	3.84	3.62	1.89	Watch
	3.75	3.6	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.92 ↓ (4.04)	3.6 ↓ (3.69)	1.88 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
24%

Draw
26.1%

Legia Warsaw
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

25.5%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

25.1%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	13.3%	53.3%

Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Legia will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 21. Matras M. 3. Esselink B. 27. Jaunzems A. 10. Domanski M. 6. Guillaumier M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 96. Dadok R. 17. Shkurin I. 44. Krykun S.	27. Kobylak G. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 8. Augustyniak R. 25. Morishita R. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 53. Urbanski W. 82. Luquinhas 28. Gual M.
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 40. Bagalianis P. 32. Gerbowski F. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 20. Knap K. 19. Tkacz D. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.	21. Celhaka J. 11. Chodyna K. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 23. Kun P. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 7. Pekhart T. 42. Sergio Barcia 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.
Coaches
Niedzwiedz J.	Feio G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', Urbanski W. 🟨,
12', 0 - 1, Morishita R. ⚽, Gual M. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Wlazlo P. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Gual M. 🟨,
57', Urbanski W. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Augustyniak R. (Pen),
68', Luquinhas ↓, Kun P. ↑,
77', Kapustka B. ↓, Szczepaniak M. ↑,
77', Vinagre R. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
77', Gual M. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
80', Domanski M. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
87', Dadok R. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
87', Krykun S. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Wolsztynski L. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 13 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 2.

Recent matches Stal Mielec is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Legia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Legia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Legia is a favorite.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Pajnowski K. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Elitim J. (Knee Injury) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury) Oyedele M. (Ankle Injury) Tobiasz K. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14:14 (average 1.6:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.11.24	Radomiak Radom - Stal Mielec	1:2 ✺
10.11.24	Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Raków Częstochowa - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2 ✺
23.10.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLTL
- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Omonia - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	3:2 ✺
10.11.24	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	5:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Dinamo Minsk	4:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
28.04.24	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	1:3
29.10.23	Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec	1:3
12.03.23	Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec	2:0
26.08.22	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	0:1
30.04.22	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	2:1
07.11.21	Legia Warsaw - Stal Mielec	1:3
09.05.21	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	0:0

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