Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 12 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Legia Warsaw		Lugano

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.7	4.1
	1.78	3.6	3.9
	1.85	3.75	4	Watch
	1.85	3.74	4.34
	1.79	3.77	4.14	Watch
	1.73	3.9	3.75
	1.86	3.81	4.22
	1.85	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.1)	3.75 ↑ (3.05)	4.06 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
51.8%

Draw
25%

Lugano
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29.1%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.6%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	7.9%	2.6%

Legia Warsaw - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Kobylak G. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 23. Kun P. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 21. Celhaka J. 25. Morishita R. 11. Chodyna K. 28. Gual M. 82. Luquinhas	1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 5. Hajdari A. 23. Valenzuela M. 8. Grgic A. 29. Belhadj M. 11. Steffen R. 25. Bislimi U. 18. Mahou H. 10. Bottani M. (C)
Substitutes
17. Alfarela M. 50. Banasik W. (G) 5. Goncalves C. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Majchrzak J. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 7. Pekhart T. 42. Sergio Barcia 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.	2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 20. Doumbia O. 22. El Wafi A. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 13. Ndiaye C. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K.
Coaches
Feio G.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Morishita R. ⚽, Gual M. (A),
23', Bislimi U. 🟨,
29', Wszolek P. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Bottani M. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Mahou H. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
72', Celhaka J. ↓, Sergio Barcia ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Hajdari A. ⚽,
78', Bottani M. ↓, Cimignani Y. ↑,
78', Belhadj M. ↓, Doumbia O. ↑,
82', Chodyna K. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
84', Kapustka B. 🟨,
88', Bislimi U. ↓, Mai L. ↑,
90+1', Pankov R. 🟨,
90+2', Pankov R. 🟨,
90+2', Gual M. 🟨,
90+4', Zanotti M. 🟨,
90+4', Luquinhas 🟨,

Preview

Legia in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lugano is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lugano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Legia have a series of guest games.

Legia will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Legia: Augustyniak R. (Injury) Elitim J. (Knee Injury) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury) Oyedele M. (Ankle Injury) Tobiasz K. (Arm Injury) Vinagre R. (Injury)

There will not play in Lugano: Aliseda I. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lugano: Babic B. (Injury) Ryter Y. (Injury) Saipi A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.12.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Cup
05.12.24	ŁKS Łódź - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.24	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Omonia - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTWW
- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
07.12.24	Luzern - Lugano	1:4 ✺
Swiss Cup
04.12.24	Yverdon - Lugano	0:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.12.24	Servette - Lugano	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Lugano - Gent	2:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
24.11.24	Lugano - Zürich	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWW

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