Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 12 December 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	14:45	Disney+
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Chile	14:45	Disney+
Colombia	12:45	Disney+
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 13
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect
Myanmar	00:15	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Peru	12:45	Disney+
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 13
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport Player, RTS Sport Player, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ UK
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus
International	17:45	Disney+


	Legia Warsaw		Lugano

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.7	4.1
	1.78	3.6	3.9
	1.85	3.75	4	Watch
	1.85	3.74	4.34
	1.79	3.77	4.14	Watch
	1.73	3.9	3.75
	1.86	3.81	4.22
	1.85	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.1)	3.75 ↑ (3.05)	4.06 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
51.8%

Draw
25%

Lugano
23.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29.1%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

27.6%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	7.9%	2.6%

Legia Warsaw - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Kobylak G. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 23. Kun P. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 21. Celhaka J. 25. Morishita R. 11. Chodyna K. 28. Gual M. 82. Luquinhas	1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 5. Hajdari A. 23. Valenzuela M. 8. Grgic A. 29. Belhadj M. 11. Steffen R. 25. Bislimi U. 18. Mahou H. 10. Bottani M. (C)
Substitutes
17. Alfarela M. 50. Banasik W. (G) 5. Goncalves C. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 99. Majchrzak J. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 7. Pekhart T. 42. Sergio Barcia 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.	2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 20. Doumbia O. 22. El Wafi A. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 13. Ndiaye C. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K.
Coaches
Feio G.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Morishita R. ⚽, Gual M. (A),
23', Bislimi U. 🟨,
29', Wszolek P. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Bottani M. ⚽, Grgic A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Mahou H. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
72', Celhaka J. ↓, Sergio Barcia ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Hajdari A. ⚽,
78', Bottani M. ↓, Cimignani Y. ↑,
78', Belhadj M. ↓, Doumbia O. ↑,
82', Chodyna K. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
84', Kapustka B. 🟨,
88', Bislimi U. ↓, Mai L. ↑,
90+1', Pankov R. 🟨,
90+2', Pankov R. 🟨,
90+2', Gual M. 🟨,
90+4', Zanotti M. 🟨,
90+4', Luquinhas 🟨,

Preview

Legia in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lugano is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lugano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Legia have a series of guest games.

Legia will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Legia: Augustyniak R. (Injury) Elitim J. (Knee Injury) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury) Oyedele M. (Ankle Injury) Tobiasz K. (Arm Injury) Vinagre R. (Injury)

There will not play in Lugano: Aliseda I. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lugano: Babic B. (Injury) Ryter Y. (Injury) Saipi A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.12.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Cup
05.12.24	ŁKS Łódź - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.24	Stal Mielec - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Omonia - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.24	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTWW
- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
07.12.24	Luzern - Lugano	1:4 ✺
Swiss Cup
04.12.24	Yverdon - Lugano	0:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.12.24	Servette - Lugano	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.11.24	Lugano - Gent	2:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
24.11.24	Lugano - Zürich	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWW

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