Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 33

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	Don Benito		Diocesano

	1	X	2
	1.24	5	10.5
	1.2	5.15	12
	1.19	5.41	11.71
	1.31	4.84	8.94	Watch
	1.2	4.8	17
	1.18	5.3	16
	1.25	3.95	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)	4.92 ↑ (4.78)	12.02 ↑ (7.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Don Benito
74%

Draw
18.4%

Diocesano
7.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

19.2%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

18.4%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Don Benito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Diocesano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Don Benito than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Don Benito - Diocesano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Carlos Lopez ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, Copete N. ⚽,
41', 3 - 0, Copete N. ⚽,
44', 4 - 0, Osei P. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', 4 - 1, Nagera A. ⚽,
47', 5 - 1, Platero P. ⚽,
50', 6 - 1, ⚽,
64', 7 - 1, ⚽,
69', 8 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Don Benito won 3.

Don Benito is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Diocesano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Don Benito is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Don Benito won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Don Benito won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Don Benito
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
26.04.26	Villafranca - Don Benito	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Jerez - Don Benito	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Don Benito - Santa Amalia	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Don Benito - Azuaga	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Don Benito - Gévora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWWW
- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
26.04.26	Diocesano - Santa Amalia	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Azuaga - Diocesano	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Diocesano - Gévora	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Calamonte - Diocesano	1:1 ✺
02.04.26	Pueblonuevo - Diocesano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
04.01.26	Diocesano - Don Benito	0:1
25.02.24	Don Benito - Diocesano	1:0
12.10.23	Diocesano - Don Benito	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
30.04.23	Don Benito - Diocesano	0:3
17.12.22	Diocesano - Don Benito	4:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
12.11.17	Diocesano - Don Benito	2:0

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