Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Dorados (Culiacán)

Referee: Alba Dorado J. L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Dorados		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.65
	2.38	3.5	2.62	Watch
	2.48	3.7	2.73
	2.51	3.53	2.61	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.5
	2.45	3.59	2.62	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.24)	3.52 ↓ (3.66)	2.62 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorados
38.8%

Draw
26.1%

Atlético La Paz
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

24.9%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Dorados - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Vaal J. (G) 18. Cervantes S. 5. Flores A. 6. Guajardo D. 16. Martinez D. 20. Osuna D. 23. Reyes J. (C) 4. Ruiz L. 27. Sanchez E. 28. Suarez L. 33. Vazquez O.	33. Alcala G. (G) 13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 10. Barragan M. (C) 17. Chiu L. 27. Garcia G. 6. Hernandez D. 12. Millan O. 21. Robles C. 15. Torres H. 7. Vazquez I. 28. Zurita Jimenez U.
Substitutes
7. Alvarez J. 13. Barrera G. (G) 29. Coronel O. 12. Egana A. 8. Galicia C. 22. Gonzalez Rodriguez W. 3. Manriquez S. 2. Yanez S.	24. Cota A. 22. Daccarett J. 16. Del Aguila Y. 23. Estrada J. (G) 14. Galindo A. 19. Jaimes U. 11. Renteria R. 3. Rodriguez G. 8. Soto A.
Coaches
Ramirez F.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽, Vazquez O. (A),
35', Zurita Jimenez U. 🟨,
35', Flores A. 🟨,
38', Robles C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 2 - 0, Alcala G. (Own goal),
58', Sanchez E. 🟨,
60', Chiu L. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
60', Hernandez D. ↓, Jaimes U. ↑,
63', Vazquez I. 🟨,
64', Ruiz L. ↓, Gonzalez Rodriguez W. ↑,
64', Vazquez O. ↓, Galicia C. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Gonzalez Rodriguez W. (Own goal),
70', Martinez D. ↓, Coronel O. ↑,
70', Guajardo D. ↓, Yanez S. ↑,
70', Suarez L. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
77', Flores A. 🟨,
80', Barragan M. 🟨,
82', Zurita Jimenez U. ↓, Galindo A. ↑,
85', Alvarez J. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Jaimes U. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 1.

Atlético La Paz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorados won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20
11	Dorados de Sinaloa	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
30.01.26	Dorados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Venados - Dorados	4:4 ✺
16.01.26	Dorados - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Cancún - Dorados	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Tapatío - Dorados	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TTWLL
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
30.01.26	Atlético La Paz - Venados	1:0 ✺
23.01.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético La Paz	0:0 ✺
16.01.26	Correcaminos UAT - Atlético La Paz	0:3 ✺
09.01.26	Atlético La Paz - Tapatío	2:2 ✺
07.11.25	Atlético La Paz - Atlante	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.08.25	Atlético La Paz - Dorados	3:1
11.04.25	Atlético La Paz - Dorados	0:0
26.10.24	Dorados - Atlético La Paz	4:0
22.02.24	Atlético La Paz - Dorados	1:0
30.07.23	Dorados - Atlético La Paz	3:4
21.03.23	Atlético La Paz - Dorados	1:1
19.07.22	Dorados - Atlético La Paz	1:0

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