Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Alba Dorado J. L. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Tapatío		Dorados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.62	3.9	4.65	Watch
	1.62	4.09	5.13
	1.48	4.20	5.79	Watch
	1.6	3.78	4.77	Watch
	1.43	4.2	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.48)	4.03 ↓ (4.2)	5.17 ↓ (5.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
59.4%

Draw
22.8%

Dorados
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

21.9%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

21.2%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Tapatío - Dorados Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
201. Liceaga J. (G) 67. Aguayo S. 66. Guzman Rodriguez J. L. 225. Inda C. 48. Jimenez L. 60. Ledesma L. 33. Martinez R. (C) 50. Mendez F. 49. Moragrega V. 62. Tellez B. 72. Villegas A.	18. Higuera C. (G) 35. Acurio J. 8. Cortes J. 5. Flores A. 15. Galicia C. 11. Garcia L. 3. Manriquez S. 9. Rengifo J. 4. Ruiz L. 27. Sanchez E. (C) 2. Yanez S.
Substitutes
74. Anaya M. 46. Egurrola L. 54. Freyfeld E. 71. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 59. Torres C. 58. Uribe J. 227. Zepeda C.	7. Alvarez J. 20. Araujo D. 13. Barrera G. (G) 12. Egana A. 33. Parra R. 31. Ramos A. 6. Rochester L. 28. Suarez L. 26. Valenzuela A. 19. Vazquez D.
Coaches
Ortega A.	Ramirez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Aguayo S. ⚽, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. (A),
8', 2 - 0, Aguayo S. ⚽, Guzman Rodriguez J. L. (A),
19', Ruiz L. 🟨,
27', 3 - 0, Moragrega V. ⚽,
32', Sanchez E. 🟨,
32', Tellez B. 🟨,
45+1', Aguayo S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Garcia L. ↓, Egana A. ↑,
46', Ruiz L. ↓, Rochester L. ↑,
46', Galicia C. ↓, Valenzuela A. ↑,
46', Moragrega V. ↓, Torres C. ↑,
60', Acurio J. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,
60', Yanez S. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
61', 3 - 1, Ramos A. ⚽, Egana A. (A),
65', Egana A. 🟨,
70', Martinez R. 🟨,
77', Inda C. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
84', Guzman Rodriguez J. L. ↓, Egurrola L. ↑,
87', Mendez F. ↓, Freyfeld E. ↑,
90', Flores A. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 1, Aguayo S. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 3.

Tapatío has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Dorados has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Dorados may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tapatío is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.10.25	Irapuato - Tapatío	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Tapatío - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:3 ✺
11.10.25	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0 ✺
03.10.25	Tapatío - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Cancún - Tapatío	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLTLL
- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.10.25	Dorados - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
17.10.25	Correcaminos UAT - Dorados	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Dorados - Atlante	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.02.25	Tapatío - Dorados	1:0
24.08.24	Dorados - Tapatío	3:3
05.04.24	Dorados - Tapatío	1:3
02.11.23	Tapatío - Dorados	0:1
06.04.23	Tapatío - Dorados	4:0
15.10.22	Dorados - Tapatío	1:1
12.01.22	Dorados - Tapatío	0:2

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