Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Encanto (Mazatlan)

Referee: Guzman M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Dorados		Tapatío

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.40	2.75
	2.23	3.35	2.80
	2.24	3.68	3.09
	2.43	3.51	2.72	Watch
	2.20	3.60	2.95
	2.24	3.48	2.98	Watch
	2.24	3.40	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.46)	3.49 ↑ (3.41)	2.87 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorados
41.2%

Draw
26.5%

Tapatío
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

27.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

26.9%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+3%)

Dorados - Tapatío Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Castro J. (G) 20. Osuna D. 4. Franco R. 32. Castro C. 11. Contreras F. 15. Leyva C. 13. Padilla G. 18. Cervantes S. 17. Pena F. (C) 6. Guajardo D. 23. Sanchez B.	45. Garcia E. (G) 43. Parra R. 53. Soldati C. 46. Hernandez C. 48. Jimenez L. 47. Garcia G. 60. Ledesma L. 44. Zamora S. (C) 65. Corona C. 69. Villaseca D. 49. Moragrega V.
Substitutes
7. Alvarez J. 29. Coronel O. 12. Egana A. 5. Flores A. 34. Flores I. (G) 27. Flores M. 8. Galicia C. 22. Gonzalez Rodriguez W. 26. Gutierrez E. 10. Vargas L.	182. Calderon L. 63. Cendejas M. 55. Esparza S. 64. Latorre D. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 50. Medina C. 54. Nuno R. 58. Uribe J. 195. Zamarripa D.
Coaches
Orozco L.	Melendez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Villaseca D. ⚽, Jimenez L. (A),
22', Cervantes S. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Cervantes S. ⚽, Pena F. (A),
39', Contreras F. 🟨,
42', Corona C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sanchez B. ↓, Coronel O. ↑,
46', Contreras F. ↓, Vargas L. ↑,
56', Leyva C. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
63', Padilla G. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
63', Ledesma L. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
63', Corona C. ↓, Esparza S. ↑,
64', Parra R. 🟨,
66', Moragrega V. 🟨,
67', 2 - 1, Coronel O. ⚽,
74', Parra R. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
74', Guajardo D. ↓, Galicia C. ↑,
84', Gutierrez E. 🟨,
85', Hernandez C. ↓, Calderon L. ↑,
85', Jimenez L. ↓, Nuno R. ↑,
90+5', Pena F. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 1, Vargas L. ⚽, Pena F. (A),
90+7', Vargas L. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Dorados may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Dorados won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorados won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.5:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17:15	2	14
11	Dorados de Sinaloa	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
03.09.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	1:4 ✺
28.08.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Venados - Dorados	4:2 ✺
15.08.26	Dorados - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
06.08.26	Dorados - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLLTT
- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
06.09.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	1:3 ✺
27.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Tapatío - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:2 ✺
14.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	2:3 ✺
08.08.26	Venados - Tapatío	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.04.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1
09.11.25	Tapatío - Dorados	4:1
07.02.25	Tapatío - Dorados	1:0
24.08.24	Dorados - Tapatío	3:3
05.04.24	Dorados - Tapatío	1:3
02.11.23	Tapatío - Dorados	0:1
06.04.23	Tapatío - Dorados	4:0

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