Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Negrete Preciado J. M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tapatío		Leones Negros UdeG

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	3.20	2.55
	2.3	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.23	3.53	3.23
	2.26	3.48	3	Watch
	2.35	3.4	2.8
	2.23	3.3	2.88	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.2)	3.34 ↓ (3.62)	2.87 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tapatío
40.2%

Draw
27.6%

Leones Negros UdeG
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

25.8%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

25.2%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tapatío has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tapatío than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Liceaga J. (G) 56. Chavez A. 53. Soldati C. 46. Hernandez C. 54. Nuno R. 59. Inda S. 60. Ledesma L. 44. Zamora S. (C) 182. Calderon L. 69. Villaseca D. 57. Hernandez J.	1. Cantu Rodriguez O. M. (G) 161. Escalante J. 21. Gonzalez O. 24. Aguayo J. 168. Alvarado M. 10. Brigido J. 28. De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 6. Marchand J. (C) 34. Hernandez S. A. 20. Gil O. 9. Razo L.
Substitutes
63. Cendejas M. 55. Esparza S. 47. Garcia G. 48. Jimenez L. 64. Latorre D. 61. Leyva Cortes A. A. (G) 50. Medina C. 49. Moragrega V. 43. Parra R. 58. Uribe J.	15. Carreon A. 35. Cazares J. 19. Loera K. 12. Martin S. (G) 27. Meza U. 154. Morales F. 167. Nuno M. 11. Perez J. 153. Torres D. 31. Valenzuela M.
Coaches
Melendez J.	Sosa A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Gil O. ⚽, Hernandez S. A. (A),
40', Alvarado M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ledesma L. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
46', Nuno R. ↓, Moragrega V. ↑,
46', Villaseca D. ↓, Uribe J. ↑,
53', Razo L. (Penalty Awarded),
56', Chavez A. 🟨,
63', 0 - 2, Marchand J. ⚽, Hernandez S. A. (A),
65', Brigido J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
68', Chavez A. ↓, Jimenez L. ↑,
75', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
76', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Meza U. ↑,
76', Alvarado M. ↓, Carreon A. ↑,
80', 0 - 3, Hernandez S. A. ⚽, Razo L. (A),
82', Gil O. ↓, Cazares J. ↑,
82', Razo L. ↓, Loera K. ↑,
84', Calderon L. ↓, Latorre D. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 3, Moragrega V. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Leones Negros UdeG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tapatío won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tapatío won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.5:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Leones Negros	11	7	2	2	27:16	11	23
10	Tapatio	11	4	2	5	19:19	0	14

Last Results with these Odds

Tapatío - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.4%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Leones Negros UdeG - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.83%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tapatío
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
27.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tapatío	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Tapatío - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:2 ✺
14.08.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tapatío	2:3 ✺
08.08.26	Venados - Tapatío	3:2 ✺
01.08.26	Tapatío - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TWWLW
- Leones Negros UdeG
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
30.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Alacranes de Durango - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	4:0 ✺
06.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Correcaminos UAT	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
30.01.26	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	2:0
22.08.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:1
07.06.25	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	1:2
31.05.25	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	1:0
12.01.25	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	2:3
Club Friendly
27.12.24	Leones Negros UdeG - Tapatío	3:0
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
17.11.24	Tapatío - Leones Negros UdeG	2:2

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