The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tepatitlán de Morelos 42.9%
Draw 27%
Dorados 30.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
56.2%
23%
20.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58.3%
22.2%
20%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tepatitlán de Morelos's form might have worsened.
Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dorados's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (+15.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tepatitlán de Morelos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (-10.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dorados, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
12.5%
0%
87.5%
Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Tepatitlán will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Dorados will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Dorados: 64.6% – 100%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
DC - Dorados (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH +0.25 - Dorados (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Dorados (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Estrada A. (C) 4. Alonso R. 19. Castaneda S. 2. Sanchez G. 22. Sanguinetti F. 11. Olvera G. 32. Arevalo T. 18. Martinez E. 28. Lopez M. 31. Casas B. 17. Gonzalez S.
21. Castro J. (G) 28. Ordorica B. 4. Franco R. 32. Castro C. 3. Garcia D. 17. Pena F. (C) 6. Guajardo D. 15. Castillo C. 18. Cervantes S. 10. Vargas L. 13. Padilla G.
Substitutes
16. Aguilar H. 33. Alcantar E. 27. Avila H. 30. Gatica A. (G) 25. Moreno A. 20. Ortega E. 9. Paez L. 14. Rios J. 7. Ruiz E. 24. Valencia V.
7. Alvarez J. 11. Contreras F. 29. Coronel O. 5. Flores A. 34. Flores I. (G) 27. Flores M. 8. Galicia C. 26. Gutierrez E. 20. Osuna D. 23. Sanchez B.
Coaches
Bartolotta D.
Orozco L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
7', Garcia D. ↓, Osuna D. ↑,
9', 0 - 1, Vargas L. ⚽,
19', Castro J. 🟨,
22', Castaneda S. 🟨,
29', Olvera G. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Ordorica B. ⚽,
37', Castaneda S. ↓, Valencia V. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 2, Sanguinetti F. ⚽,
45+4', Gonzalez S. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 3, Guajardo D. ⚽, Pena F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gonzalez S. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
58', Ordorica B. ↓, Contreras F. ↑,
58', Vargas L. ↓, Coronel O. ↑,
64', Olvera G. 🟥,
72', Casas B. ↓, Avila H. ↑,
72', Arevalo T. ↓, Paez L. ↑,
73', Martinez E. 🟨,
78', Guajardo D. 🟨,
81', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Ortega E. ↑,
81', Castillo C. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
81', Guajardo D. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
81', Padilla G. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
89', 1 - 4, Coronel O. ⚽, Osuna D. (A),
90+3', Franco R. 🟨,
Preview
In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 2.
Recent form of Tepatitlán has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Dorados's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Tepatitlán could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.3:0.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:3. (average 2:0.4).
Watch
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Estrada A. (C) 
Sanguinetti F. 
Arevalo T. 
Avila H. 
Paez L. 
Bartolotta D. 
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