Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 40

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Dorchester Town		Gloucester City

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.65	1.82
	3.34	3.87	1.87
	3.37	4.16	1.88	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.83
	3.63	3.7	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↓ (3.93)	3.78 ↓ (4.08)	1.84 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorchester Town
26.5%

Draw
24.1%

Gloucester City
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

22.1%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

21.8%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorchester Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Gloucester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gloucester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorchester Town than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gloucester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dorchester Town - Gloucester City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 5)
2', 0 - 1, Cross L. ⚽,
14', 0 - 2, Spence S. ⚽,
18', 0 - 3, Thomas K. ⚽,
29', 0 - 4, Simpson K. ⚽,
43', 0 - 5, Simpson K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Gloucester is Qualified for Southern League Premier South (Play Offs )

Dorchester is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Gloucester's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gloucester could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Dorchester won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Dorchester won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Gloucester	9	1	4	4	12:17	-5	7

Last Results with these Odds

Gloucester City - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 54.97%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorchester Town
English Southern League South Division
06.04.26	Weymouth - Dorchester Town	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Dorchester Town - Berkhamsted	2:3 ✺
28.03.26	Walton & Hersham - Dorchester Town	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Dorchester Town - Bracknell Town	2:4 ✺
17.03.26	Farnham Town - Dorchester Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLLL
- Gloucester City
English Southern League South Division
06.04.26	Gloucester City - Taunton Town	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Hanwell Town - Gloucester City	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Gloucester City - Plymouth Parkway	3:0 ✺
24.03.26	Tiverton Town - Gloucester City	0:6 ✺
21.03.26	Gloucester City - Uxbridge	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
06.09.25	Gloucester City - Dorchester Town	2:0
05.04.25	Gloucester City - Dorchester Town	3:3
24.08.24	Dorchester Town - Gloucester City	1:0

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