Match Info

Sergipano - Round 8

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday


	Dorense		Confiança

	1	X	2
	6.1	3.95	1.44
	5.51	3.54	1.55
	2.02	3.11	3.69	Watch
	6	3.6	1.5
	7.29	3.7	1.44
	6	3.75	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.49 ↓ (7.54)	3.61 ↓ (4.22)	1.85 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorense
18.2%

Draw
27.7%

Confiança
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.1%

21.6%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.8%

21.1%

67.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dorense's performance.

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Confiança might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorense than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dorense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Confiança could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dorense - Confiança Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Jussimar ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', 1 - 1, Guilherme Nunes ⚽,
84', 1 - 2, Wendel ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Confiança is Qualified for Sergipano (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorense won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Dorense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Confiança is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Dorense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorense won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
07.02.26	Sergipe - Dorense	2:1 ✺
04.02.26	Itabaiana - Dorense	3:0 ✺
31.01.26	Dorense - Falcon	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Dorense - Lagarto	1:5 ✺
22.01.26	Desportiva Aracaju - Dorense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWLW
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
08.02.26	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Confiança - Guarany de Porto da Folha	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Sergipe - Confiança	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético Gloriense - Confiança	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Confiança - Falcon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
01.03.25	Dorense - Confiança	2:1
21.01.24	Dorense - Confiança	0:1
27.02.23	Confiança - Dorense	3:2
19.02.20	Dorense - Confiança	1:1
26.03.19	Confiança - Dorense	3:2
24.01.18	Confiança - Dorense	1:1
04.02.17	Dorense - Confiança	0:0

Dorense - Confiança: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide