Match Info

National League South - Round 44

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Dover Athletic		Farnborough

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.55	2.3
	2.76	3.5	2.45
	2.71	3.61	2.36	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.3
	2.8	3.52	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.56)	3.5 ↓ (3.68)	2.35 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dover Athletic
33.8%

Draw
26.6%

Farnborough
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

25.2%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

24.9%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dover Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Farnborough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farnborough than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Dover Athletic - Farnborough Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Beadle H. ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, Robinson O. ⚽,
45', 1 - 2, Bingham R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
82', 1 - 3, Bloomfield M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 17 and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dover won 1.

Dover is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Farnborough is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Dover has had a series of away games.

Recently, Farnborough has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Dover won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 7:23. (average 0.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Dover won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Farnborough: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17:16	1	17
18	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8:13	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Dover Athletic - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 36.26%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dover Athletic
English National League South
06.04.26	Ebbsfleet United - Dover Athletic	4:0 ✺
03.04.26	Dover Athletic - Maidstone United	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Salisbury - Dover Athletic	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Enfield Town - Dover Athletic	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Chelmsford City - Dover Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLLLW
- Farnborough
English National League South
06.04.26	Farnborough - Horsham	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Farnborough	3:1 ✺
28.03.26	Farnborough - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
25.03.26	Farnborough - Chelmsford City	4:2 ✺
21.03.26	Farnborough - Slough Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
13.09.25	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	4:1
English National League South
06.09.25	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	1:2
23.03.24	Dover Athletic - Farnborough	1:3
28.10.23	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	4:0
22.04.23	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	3:0
22.10.22	Dover Athletic - Farnborough	1:1
25.03.14	Dover Athletic - Farnborough	0:1

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