Match Info

National League South - Round 40

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday


	Chelmsford City		Dover Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.1	5
	1.48	4.35	5.5
	1.5	4.47	5.73
	1.49	4.53	5.63	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.5
	1.5	4.58	5.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.48)	4.37 ↓ (4.44)	5.45 ↓ (5.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
61.9%

Draw
21.2%

Dover Athletic
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

20.9%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

20.5%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Dover Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Chelmsford City - Dover Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Nikaj G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Nikaj G. ⚽,
75', 1 - 2, Taylor L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 1.

Chelmsford is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dover has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Dover may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chelmsford is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelmsford won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.8:2).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 5.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17:16	1	17
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9:8	1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
16.03.26	Chelmsford City - Slough Town	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Worthing - Chelmsford City	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Dorking Wanderers - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Chelmsford City - Bath City	7:1 ✺
28.02.26	Torquay United - Chelmsford City	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLTWW
- Dover Athletic
English National League South
14.03.26	Dover Athletic - Chippenham Town	1:2 ✺
10.03.26	Dover Athletic - Tonbridge Angels	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Dover Athletic	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Slough Town - Dover Athletic	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
28.10.25	Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City	0:1
01.04.24	Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City	1:0
23.10.23	Chelmsford City - Dover Athletic	3:3
18.02.23	Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City	0:0
07.11.22	Chelmsford City - Dover Athletic	0:0
Club Friendly
18.07.18	Chelmsford City - Dover Athletic	1:0
English National League South
01.02.14	Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City	2:2

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