Match Info

National League South - Round 41

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Farnborough		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.5	2.35
	2.77	3.56	2.37
	2.7	3.72	2.32	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.38
	2.67	3.36	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (3.67)	3.49 ↓ (4.12)	2.34 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farnborough
34.2%

Draw
26.4%

Hornchurch
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

22.5%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

23.6%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farnborough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Farnborough's performance.

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hornchurch might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farnborough than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Farnborough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hornchurch could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Farnborough - Hornchurch Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Farnborough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Poleon D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Stickland M. ⚽,
61', 2 - 1, Anthony M. ⚽,
90+5', 2 - 2, Wraight T. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Farnborough may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hornchurch will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farnborough won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Farnborough won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Farnborough: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8:13	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Hornchurch - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 52.16%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Farnborough
English National League South
25.03.26	Farnborough - Chelmsford City	4:2 ✺
21.03.26	Farnborough - Slough Town	2:0 ✺
17.03.26	Farnborough - Dagenham & Redbridge	2:3 ✺
14.03.26	Maidstone United - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Bath City - Farnborough	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLLW
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
24.03.26	Chesham United - Hornchurch	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Bath City - Hornchurch	2:2 ✺
10.03.26	Horsham - Hornchurch	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Hornchurch - Slough Town	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
23.08.25	Hornchurch - Farnborough	3:1
04.03.25	Farnborough - Hornchurch	0:1
03.09.24	Hornchurch - Farnborough	1:0
02.03.13	Farnborough - Hornchurch	1:1
29.09.12	Hornchurch - Farnborough	1:1

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