Match Info

National League South - Round 15

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Dover Athletic		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2.02
	3.42	3.59	2	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2
	3.43	3.53	2.03
	3.6	3.33	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.05)	3.43 ↓ (3.53)	2 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dover Athletic
27%

Draw
26.9%

Hemel Hempstead Town
46.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26.3%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

25.6%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dover Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Matthews Lewis M. ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Nikaj G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 1 - 2, Matthews Lewis M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Dover is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hemel Hempstead has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hemel Hempstead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Hemel Hempstead has had a series of home games.

Hemel Hempstead will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Dover won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Dover won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17:16	1	17
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.15 are the expected chance of winning is 43.22%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dover Athletic
English National League South
30.12.25	Dover Athletic - Ebbsfleet United	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	Maidstone United - Dover Athletic	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Dover Athletic - Eastbourne Borough	2:5 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Dover Athletic - Hornchurch	1:4 ✺
English National League South
06.12.25	Chesham United - Dover Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLLW
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
03.01.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:0 ✺
30.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Enfield Town	3:0 ✺
26.12.25	Chesham United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Maidenhead United	0:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
06.04.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dover Athletic	1:1
21.10.23	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:2
28.01.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dover Athletic	0:0
27.08.22	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	4:0

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